john hawks weblog

paleoanthropology, genetics and evolution

natural selection

  • Sample sizes and the "Neandertal haplogroup"

    Tue, 2008-08-26 11:47 -- John Hawks

    I have an excellent e-mail question about last week’s Neandertal mtDNA paper, which has provoked a lot of commentary.

    I just skimmed over your comments on the recent paper and I have a couple questions. First, how many Neanderthals did they receive mitochondrial DNA from? I think I read somewhere that it was fewer than ten.

    Second if that is true, what the hell does it mean? I wouldn’t try and predict anything based on even fifty humans from that long ago much less 8 or 9 in genetic terms. I don’t think that anyone else would either unless they are grandstanding. You can’t prove a negative so they really can’t say that no modern humans have any Neanderthal DNA. Did they study Neanderthals from Asia? I just think they don’t have a good enough sample and until we can resequence a Neanderthal nucleus and bring the little tyke to term and wait for him or her to marry then wait for those kids to have kids will we really be sure we’ve got the goods.

    Krause et al. (2007) list 15 Neandertal partial mtDNA sequences. Ten of these at that time presented relatively long portions, including the central Asian Okladnikov and Teshik Tash specimens, Mezmaiskaya, Feldhofer 1 and 2, Vindija 75 and 80, Scladina, Monte Lessini, and El Sidrón 1252. The same paper lists five additional specimens for which only a very short sequence had been recovered (just enough to diagnose as part of the Neandertal clade), including Vindija 77, El Sidrón 441, Engis 2, Rochers de Villeneuve, and La Chapelle-aux-Saints.

    We do not know that every Neandertal belonged to the same mtDNA clade as those 15 sequences. Some of them may have looked different, possibly including the new clade otherwise present in later Upper Paleolithic and living people. But based on the 15 sequences we have, we can say that a large fraction of Neandertals must have carried the “Neandertal haplogroup.” Exactly how large a fraction depends on what we are willing to believe about contamination, preservation, and the randomness of our sample.

    Now, let’s consider the question: Can we predict anything about Neandertal evolution and relationships based on this small, possibly unrepresentative sample of mtDNA?

    The answer is that it doesn’t matter very much whether we have 5 sequences or 500. If 15 out of 15 specimens from different sites across Europe preserve a single mtDNA haplogroup, we can’t say it was universal, but we can say it was common. If 40 out of 50, or 400 out of 500 specimens had the same haplogroup, that would increase the precision, but not change the basic fact: Neandertals had at least one common haplogroup that is now so rare it has never been found in a sample of 100,000 or more people. We deserve some explanation.

    The possible explanations are:

    1. Random genetic drift
    2. Accelerated genetic drift due to demographic turnover
    3. Population extinction and replacement
    4. Natural selection


    Drift

    Random genetic drift is fairly easy to refute, although it might not appear so at first. In favor of drift: There were few Neandertals, and the population size of the succeeding Upper Paleolithic, up through the Last Glacial Maximum, was also small—the best estimates are on the order of 2000 people for Western Europe and 5000 for continental Europe to the Urals (Bocquet-Appel et al.2005). There would have been perhaps twice or more that number across the entire Neandertal range. The effective population size represented by this population would have been smaller; perhaps 3000–5000 for Neandertals and Aurignacian-era people, only half, or around 2000, females. Genetic drift in this small mtDNA population would have been much stronger than for autosomal genes, and very much stronger than in most recent human populations.

    But when we plug these numbers into a model of random genetic drift, it starts to appear very unlikely that drift alone could explain the observations. Let’s assume (falsely) that our Neandertal genetic samples all dated to 40,000 years ago, and the female effective size was 2000 individuals between then and 15,000 years ago, and that the population of Neandertal country were a random mating pool. Following these assumptions, on averageall the mtDNA genomes at 15,000 years ago would descend from only 4 or 5 ancestral copies in the population 40,000 years ago. If these five ancestral copies were, by chance, a different haplogroup from the 15 copies we’ve already found, then drift could explain the data.

    However, this still doesn’t appear very likely. So far, every one of the Neandertals shares a single haplogroup. The frequency of this haplogroup was apparently very high, making it very unlikely that all five ancestral copies would have belonged to some other haplogroups of which we have never found any trace.

    Notice that this argument does not depend very much on the number of Neandertal mtDNA sequences that we have found. The fact that there are 15 helps to constrain the frequency of the haplogroup within the population 40,000 years ago, in our model. That frequency is unlikely to be less than around 85%, assuming random sampling. But suppose there were only five. We would still know that the Neandertal haplogroup was very common in its population, even if we thought it was only 50%. It would still be unlikely to draw four or five ancestral copies and have all of them be some other haplogroup that we haven’t found.

    This gives us a considerable confidence margin against drift. We need it. After all, the Neandertals were not randomly sampled at a single time, and it is possible that some of them actually carried a human-like mtDNA sequence, which we now falsely interpret as contamination. But even with these shadows hanging over us, it would still be unlikely that none of the ancestors of today’s mtDNA variation were like the Neandertal haplogroup.

    Also, the population was not a random-mating pool. When we add geographic structure to the story, which tends to reduce the importance of genetic drift, we find that the possibility that drift alone is almost zero, and it remains very unlikely that a single migration of modern humans interbreeding with Neandertals under random drift could explain the observations, either (Currat and Excoffier2004).

    Extinction

    It is at this point that most geneticists turn to the hypothesis of complete Neandertal extinction. They have a point. Genetic drift apparently cannot explain what we have observed, In their point of view, if genetic drift alone cannot explain the Neandertal mtDNA disappearance, then the only other random process at hand is extinction.

    I think that hypothesis is false. It does not account for morphological similarities between Neandertals and later people, genetic evidence that suggests a strong ancient population structure with introgression, or with the apparent behavioral continuity in the Upper Paleolithic.

    Happily, I don’t have a commitment to random processes. Instead, I think that the mtDNA evolution of Europe was driven by nonrandom processes of demographic turnover and selection.

    Demographic turnover

    Here we come to an important point. No one believes that later Europeans evolved from earlier Neandertals by a random process of genetic drift. Yet that is precisely the hypothesis that most studies have set up to refute. Without question it is valuable to set up boundary conditions under the hypothesis of random genetic drift. But the time has come to investigate more interesting models.

    Personally, I am surprised that more complicated metapopulation dynamics have not gotten more attention as an explanation for the Neandertal mtDNA results. Population sources and sinks are a hot topic in biology, and you would think that anthropologists would have picked up on this. To my knowledge, the only time anyone has examined a population sink model was in 2001, when Milford Wolpoff and I worked with mathematician Per Enflo on such an idea for Neandertals (Enflo et al.2001). This idea deserves a fuller treatment (I think I’ll suggest it as a project for one of my classes this year!).

    In a nutshell, a population sink is a region where the average rate of reproduction is below replacement levels. This region can remain populated only if individuals migrate in from other places. The places that reproduce above replacement are called population sources. The continual migration from sources to sinks creates a genetic gradient. Individuals sampled at any given time in the population sink are overwhelmingly likely to have ancestors not in the sink but in one or more source populations.

    Europe today is a population sink. The population of the continent does not produce enough children to replace itself, and immigration from other parts of the world is high. There are several reasons to suggest that Europe may have been a population sink in prehistory as well. In Neandertal and Upper Paleolithic times, climate fluctuations created unique challenges in Europe, where caloric expenditures were high and food harder to obtain than some other regions.

    Continual migration into Europe would provide a simple explanation for why none of today’s mtDNA haplogroups derive from the European Neandertals. The mtDNA population of 15,000 years ago had a few ancestors 40,000 years ago, and none of these ancestors lived in the sink population—all came from the source population in Africa or West Asia. The Neandertal mtDNA variation would have been a short-lived phenomenon, continually being turned over from source populations. Some Neandertal genes would have survived in Europe for hundreds of thousands of years, but some would have come in with more recent migrants from the population source.

    There are points that argue against this source-sink hypothesis. The Neandertal-human divergence time for mtDNA is not very different than that estimated for the autosomal genome. If a European population sink had made genetic drift more powerful, that should have affected mtDNA more than the autosomes, so we might expect a more recent mtDNA divergence. Still, there is nor reason why the source-sink dynamic need have been constant over Neandertal evolution, and there may have been multiple sources in the Pleistocene, not only Africa and West Asia. Investigating the boundary conditions of the source-sink model and its correspondence to autosomal genetic results would be helpful.

    I should note that mtDNA is not special. Neandertals had lots of traits that are now very rare. The horizontal-oval, or “bridged” mandibular foramen is a prominent example. Out of the relatively small sample of Neandertal mandibles, half have this derived form. Fewer than one percent of recent European mandibles have this form. As for mtDNA, a once-common variant is now very rare. And as for mtDNA, we deserve some explanation. A source-sink model would appear consistent with the continued evolution of such traits during the Upper Paleolithic—a time when the extinction and replacement hypothesis predicts no change in these characters.

    Natural selection

    The other nonrandom hypothesis is natural selection, which would presumably have favored one or more modern human types while eliminating the original Neandertal haplogroup. I won’t say much about that hypothesis here, since I discussed it in my initial post about the whole-mtDNA-genome sequencing. Selection has a leg up over the other hypotheses now because it seems like there’s good evidence it happened.

    Still, selection on mtDNA alone could not explain the total pattern of observations about Neandertals. Physical traits that were once frequent in Neandertals were much less common or absent in later Europeans, and some continued to reduce in frequencies over time. To explain these changes, we must invoke either selection on other traits, or continued demographic turnover in the post-Neandertal population (probably more immigration into Europe) or both.

    So selection on mtDNA has never been a sufficient or necessary hypothesis, even if we assume that other genes carried by Neandertals still survive. But given the current evidence that suggests something distinctive about the mtDNA of recent humans, natural selection may receive renewed attention as a factor in the disappearance of the Neandertal mtDNA haplogroup.

    References


       Bocquet-Appel JP, Demars PY, Noiret L, Dobrowsky D. 2005. Estimates of Upper Palaeolithic meta-population size in Europe from archaeological data. J Archaeol Sci 32:1656–1668. doi:10.1016/j.jas.2005.05.006.

       Currat M, Excoffier L. 2004. Modern humans did not admix with Neanderthals during their range expansion into Europe. PLoS Biol 2:e421.

       Enflo P, Hawks J, Wolpoff MH. 2001. A simple reason why Neanderthal ancestry can be consistent with current DNA information. Am J Phys Anthropol 114:S62.

       Krause J, et al. 2007. Neanderthals in central Asia and Siberia. Nature 449:902–904. doi:10.1038/nature06193.

  • Life history and disease in Tasmanian devils

    Mon, 2008-07-14 23:56 -- John Hawks

    The keywords to the article include, "carnivorous marsupial" and "precocious breeding." What better teaser could you possibly hope for?

    Tasmanian devils are dying because of a transmissible cell line infection, or "cancer," decimating their population. In fact, in some places it's killing 9 out of 10, which is way beyond decimation.

    The new paper by Menna Jones and colleagues claims that the population is evolving toward a radical life history solution to the problem: Tasmanian devils are starting to mate and have large litters after a single year, before they have a chance to succumb to the disease:

    This change in life history is associated with almost complete mortality of individuals from this infectious cancer past their first year of adult life. Devils have shown their capacity to respond to this disease-induced increased adult mortality with a 16-fold increase in the proportion of individuals exhibiting precocious sexual maturity. These patterns are documented in five populations where there are data from before and after disease arrival and subsequent population impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first known case of infectious disease leading to increased early reproduction in a mammal.

    It's a simple response: young breeders used to have lower fitness, because of competition from older adults. Now, the high mortality after the first year has made it a losing strategy to wait to reproduce. When the early breeders are the only ones having many offspring, the population will evolve quickly to early breeding.

    References:

    Jones ME, Cockburn A, Hamede R, Hawkins C, Hesterman H, Lachish S, Mann D, McCallum H, Pemberton D. 2008. Life-history change in disease-ravaged Tasmanian devil populations. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA (in press) doi:10.1073/pnas.0711236105

  • Zimmer "flounders"

    Thu, 2008-07-10 10:47 -- John Hawks

    Carl Zimmer puts in a nice entry on the new flounder evolution paper, covering the history of the question including the debate between Darwin and Mivart about the evolution of the upward-facing flounder eye position. It's a recommended read. Here's the end:

    Amphistium and Heteronectes now join the transitional fossil hall of fame, along with a fish with limbs, Tiktaalik, and the limbed cousin of whales, Indohyus. They’re also a reminder that the argument, “It can’t possibly have evolved because I can’t imagine it evolved” is not an argument at all. It may be hard to imagine Amphistium and Heteronectes, but they are real. In fact, they’ve been sitting around in museums for centuries, waiting for someone to recognize their true wonder.

    I especially like the aspect of "sitting around in museums," because the truth is that there are a lot of discoveries still waiting to be made on material removed from the ground decades ago. In this case, the ability to CT-scan the fossils is a nice new addition, but in fact there are lots of things that an eye trained in modern systematics will see that someone many years ago may have missed. Of course, in science fiction novels, it's usually some horrible ancient truth waiting to be discovered, but scientists are doing the real thing all the time!

  • Weed species (part 1)

    Mon, 2008-07-07 20:26 -- John Hawks

    This is the first in a series of essays titled, "Practical Evolution." Here are links to the whole series and the series introduction. I've decided to break the articles up into two parts, so that a full essay will appear in two successive weeks. So if you enjoy the current installment, by all means come back on Friday, when I will follow the threads of dispersal by way of an obnoxious animal pest right back to hominids.

    Dandelion seeds

    Probably the most well-known weed species in America is the one growing so prolifically in my yard: the dandelion. Any kid can tell you why dandelions spread so quickly: Their seeds are carried by the wind.

    But for all their blowing of the puff-heads, as Goodwin calls them, my kids haven't noticed what seems so obvious to me. Dandelions are almost indestructible. Pull them up and their leaves will dry, but the flowers on the dead-looking plants continue to develop seeds and puff out. Leave just a little of the taproot in the ground, and new leaves will sprout hydra-like from all directions. Gretchen drenched a goodly portion of our sidewalk dandelions last year with boiling water, wilting the leaves like spinach. Some of them really died. The rest sprouted right back.

    Even when we're talking about dainty little parasol-like seeds, much depends on the size of the whole package. The part that looks like a "seed," a botanist calls an achene, which is technically a kind of fruit. The sunflower seeds that teenagers spit at softball games are fruits, too, but don't try telling that to their mothers. The dandelion's parachute, or pappus, is connected to the achene by one long shaft. A large, massive achene will tend to fall faster and won't blow very far except in a very strong wind. Sunflowers and coneflowers go for the big achene strategy, which the winter-resident birds really appreciate come January. Dandelions go the opposite way: small achene, big pappus. That's why weedy coneflowers are only a problem within five feet of my perennial beds, while weedy dandelions are in every disturbed field in the country.

    Barkley Sound, Broken Island group

    Barkley Sound, Broken Islands group

    A remarkable botanical field study has been carried out over the last twenty-seven years by Martin Cody, in Barkley Sound, British Columbia. In 1981, Cody began keeping track of the plants on a few of the small islands that dot the Sound. After a few years, the study had changed into something grander than a simple plant census: Cody's 2006 book on the subject begins, "This is a book about a field study that just grew and grew." For more than twenty years, Cody and his students have counted plants on hundreds of tiny islands, most under a few hundred square meters in size. Many of these islands are so small that a species may disappear from them entirely, only to be re-established later by new colonists. With his careful censuses, Cody could determine when populations were newly founded, and when they became locally extinct.

    By 1996, Cody had amassed information about weedy plants that had colonized dozens of the tiny islands of Barkley Sound. These plants all originally had come from Europe, including dandelions, their close relative cat's-ear (Hypochaeris radicata), wall lettuce (Mycelis (Lactuca) muralis), and woodland groundsel (Senecio sylvaticus). That means that all the plants are recent colonists, and they have all been carried to the islands by the wind, each using similar seed packages that include an achene and pappus.

    What makes a successful colonist? The first seeds to reach one of these tiny islands have done an exceptional thing: Wind has carried them across a large body of water to reach a tiny speck of virgin soil. Only the tiniest achenes tend to make this unlikely journey, and only if their parachutes are big enough to carry them.

    Cody and his student, Jacob Overton, took some of these seeds from both island and mainland populations and embarked on a series of experiments. First, they set a stopwatch and dropped the seeds to see how fast they fell. The results of this seed drop were pretty much the same as when kids tie little parachutes onto green army men. Generally, the bigger the parachute, the slower the descent. But if the achene is small enough, even a very small pappus may be enough to keep it aloft. The key is the ratio: the volume of the pappus compared to that of the achene.

    Wall lettuce seedhead

    Seed head of wall lettuce (Mycelis muralis) with five achenes remaining

    There's nothing very surprising about this: The wind carries small seeds farther, particularly if they have big parachutes. Plants that bear this kind of seed have only a tiny chance of colonizing an island. But plants with big achenes and little parachutes may have no chance of colonizing new islands at all. So by sorting seeds, the wind and sea also sort the genes of the colonizing plants.

    Indeed, Cody and Overton found that new populations of these plants on islands produce the kind of seeds that occasionally skip across to new islands. For example, the youngest island populations of wall lettuce — less than four years old — have the tiniest achenes. Their parachutes are small, too, but they generate a lot of loft. If the seeds of mainland wall lettuce are like a green army man tied to a kleenex, the first island colonists are like a BB stuck to a postage stamp.

    Wall lettuce populations that manage to stick around on an island make a change. After ten years, they are producing achenes just as big as the mainland populations. But instead of big, fluffy parachutes, they grow smaller, stunted ones. Like green army men tied to smaller and smaller postage stamps, these seeds aren't made for dispersal. They drop fast, right next door to their parents.

    More dispersal is not always better, even if you're a weed. A windy day might carry your seeds far away, but what if you live on a tiny island? Your seeds will be carried right off into the ocean. Worse, even if you live on a large island in Barkley Sound, there may be only a small strip of good habitat. Too far toward the water and you're drowned by storm surges; too far inland and you have to compete with larger, more established plants. For these island weeds, the plants that disperse the least have more new seedlings.

    Cat's-ear

    Cat's-ear

    Adaptable as they are, dandelions have done a poor job colonizing these tiny islands. The best of these weed species have managed to invade one island in five. Dandelions are found on less than a fourth that many. Despite their fame for being windblown, dandelion seeds actually drop faster than the wispy seeds of the other species on these islands. The rare colonists that do reach an island tend to last less than two years.

    Their relative, cat's-ear, has done better. Since it carries its flowers higher, on branched stems, cat's-ear makes more headway into grassy areas away from the beach, giving it a bit more area to work with. As a result, its populations become extinct only a third as much turnover as dandelions. LIke the wall lettuce, the island cat's-ear populations are different from the mainland, sporting big achenes and small parachutes. Dropping their seeds nearby seems to make a big difference as to whether their populations will persist.

    Natural selection seems to have changed the island populations of both these weeds, favoring lower dispersal. But how do we know it is really selection on dispersal, and not just something about the islands affecting seed size?

    Woodland groundsel, another of the weedy asters on the islands, provides one natural experiment. Cody and Overton dropped dozens of groundsel seeds from twenty populations, and found that the sizes of achenes and pappus made no difference at all to the speed that the seeds drop to the ground. Small groundsel achenes drop just as fast as large ones, no less than if Galileo had dropped them from the Leaning Tower. Even if selection had favored faster drop times, woodland groundsel achenes and pappus volumes should not have changed. And in fact, Cody and Overton found that they didn't change: island populations of woodland groundsel have proportions almost exactly the same as the mainland.

    Another experiment has been carried out in the most unlikely location. Hawksbeards (genus Crepis), also relatives of the dandelion, are common weeds spread across the Old World and into North America. Like dandelions, the hawksbeard Crepis sancta can colonize urban habitat, including the tiny patches of bare ground that cities leave in sidewalks for trees to grow. These are the urban equivalent of the tiny islands in Barkley Sound: sometimes far apart, they are separated by stretches of inhospitable concrete. In Montpelier, France, during the last few years Pierre-Olivier Cheptou and his colleagues have performed the urban version of Martin Cody's work: counting plants and collecting seeds from the small hawksbeard colonies around the city. What it lacks in rugged charm, Montpelier makes up in record-keeping — knowing when the sidewalks were built, the researchers could work out the ages of different hawksbeard populations.

    Unlike dandelions, C. sancta produces two different kinds of seeds: one with the achene and pappus carried on the wind, and another with no pappus at all. These seeds without parachutes do not go far; they scatter near the mother plant. That makes them bad for colonizing new patches of ground, but really good for establishing a sustained presence in one patch.

    Compared to the rural C. sancta population, urban plants have more of the no-parachute seeds. These plants cast fewer seeds to the wind, and drop more on the ground to sprout nearby. Like the islands of Barkley Sound, these urban islands select for low dispersal.

    Cheptou and his coworkers were able to go farther than Cody and Overton: They planted the seeds from urban patches in a greenhouse alongside seeds from the rural areas outside of town. The urban/rural differences were still present in the greenhouse plants, showing that growing in a small patch is not enough to change the seeds. Instead, the differences are caused by differences in genes, the result of selection on the urban plants.

    What is more, they grew their own small patches of C. sancta, replicating the conditions of the urban plants. The seed heads of the real urban populations were the equal of those after 12 to 13 generations of selection on their fake urban patches. This rapid pace of selection on the urban plants matches that on the islands of Barkley Sound, where wall lettuce and cat's-ear repeatedly showed strongest changes after only a few generations.

    Cody and Overton 1996, Figure 1

    The cycle of founding new island populations and their subsequent extinction.

    Colonization is a filter: Only certain individuals may have the right combination of traits to cross a significant barrier and inhabit a new place. But the traits that enable individuals to make such crossings are not always very good for staying in the new place.

    For certain species, selection yields a complicated pattern. A plant that is a local failure may be a global success, as it casts its seeds to far-off places, a few of which may grow into significant new populations. Such high-dispersing plants may do very poorly as a new population grows, but may be the only ones with a chance to escape when local extinction looms. High-dispersing individuals are also the ones most likely to carry their genes from one population to another, providing the potential for adaptations across the species as a whole.

    Without dispersal, a species may become moribund, unable to change in the face of new challenges. At the extreme, this has been called "evolutionary suicide." Traits that are selected locally, because they enhance the reproduction of individuals in the species, may nevertheless doom the species as a whole by reducing adaptability to changing conditions. The cost of maintaining the ability to change is a constant unstable balance between dispersal and staying power.

    For the weeds of Barkley Sound, this unstable balance ultimately favors the colonizers. New island populations do not last long. The local selection in favor of lower dispersal helps them to persist for a time, but on the scale of centuries all of them will fail, only to be replaced by new colonists from elsewhere.

    Friday: We turn from plant parachutes to animal dispersal mechanisms. And by "mechanisms" I mean, "legs."

    Notes:

    I am indebted to George Cox, whose excellent Alien Species and Evolution: The Evolutionary Ecology of Exotic Plants, Animals, Microbes, and Interacting Native Species (2004) gives a good account of Cody and Overton's study of island weeds. I can't say enough good things about this book.

    Martin Cody's book, Plants on Islands: Diversity And Dynamics on a Continental Archipelago, gives an account of the history of his field project, as well as reviews of the many areas of ecology that it has helped to illuminate.

    Many readers may notice that there is another factor besides low dispersal potential by which selection might favor large achenes in these plant species. Larger seeds may be advantageous because, with more stored energy, they may tend to germinate more readily or grow more quickly, thus making them more competitive. In this circumstance, selection would pertain to energy allocation or reproductive effort, rather than dispersal. I'll be discussing that form of selection in a later essay. In the present cases, dispersal is indicated as the target of selection, but seed size and energy allocation may also be involved.

    If seed morphology makes so little difference to drop time in Senecio sylvaticus, you may wonder what maintains achene size and pappus volume in this species. At least, that's what I wondered. Without more information it is hard to say, but I would hypothesize that achene and pappus volume may be genetically correlated in a way that is hard to select for one and not the other. In the other species, the selection on achene size and pappus volume is apparently antagonistic -- larger achenes are favored at the same time as smaller pappus. If these two traits are strongly genetically correlated, it becomes harder to select for lower dispersal. It would also be worth investigating whether other traits besides these volumes may have evolved in the island populations.

    The rapid evolution of urban hawksbeard (Crepis sancta) was examined by Cheptou et al. (2008). Pierre-Olivier Cheptou has a webpage at CEFE, including a description of Crepis sancta as a model system.

    Photo credits:

    Dandelion seeds: Photo by Piccolo Namek, on Wikimedia. GPL license.

    Barkley Sound: Photo by Sam Wilson (BaylorBear78) on Flickr. Creative commons noncommercial share-alike license.

    Cat's-ear: Photo by Ian Boyd, on Flickr. Creative Commons noncommercial attribution license.

    Wall lettuce: Photo by Mollivan John, on Flickr. Creative Commons noncommercial attribution license.

    Colonization figure: Figure 1 from Cody and Overton, 1996.

    References:

    Cheptou, P-O, Carrue O, Souifed S, Cantarel A. 2008. Rapid evolution of seed dispersal in an urban environment in the weed Crepis sancta. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 105:3796-3799. doi:10.1073/pnas.0708446105

    Cody ML. 2006. Plants on Islands: Diversity and Dynamics on a Continental Archipelago. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.

    Cody ML, Overton JM, 1996. Short-term evolution of reduced dispersal in island plant populations. J Ecol 84:53-61.

    Cox G. 2004. Alien Species and Evolution. Island Press, Washington.

  • Evolution of the monkeyflowers

    Fri, 2008-04-18 23:34 -- John Hawks

    Spring has finally come to us here in the North, and it's time to start thinking about planting. So, when I went to a seminar yesterday by John Willis, it was with dual motives.

    Naturally, I was interested in hearing about his work relating the evolutionary ecology of Mimulus species to their genomics. As Willis and his many former and current lab members made clear in a recent review article in Heredity, monkeyflowers have become a really interesting model system for studying the dynamics of natural selection on genomes -- particularly, with relation to local ecological adaptation, and also with relation to speciation.

    But I was also thinking about whether I could find a nice flower variety for my garden. I'm not particularly excited about peas, and I tolerate Arabidopsis when it comes up, but let's face it, it's not exactly a show flower. I'd love to get one of the prettier hawkweeds going (these have eponymical appeal as well as botanical interest) but the common ones are pretty boring.

    Well, Willis's lab has been a center of development for Mimulus genetics. They have developed a store of SNPs and other markers (available at the Mimulus evolution website) for QTL mapping, and are using them to find genes responsible for ecological adaptations in different wild Mimulus populations. In the talk, Willis featured some of his collaborators' work finding genes involved in wet versus dry habitat adaptations and in early versus late flowering. These traits are connected to each other, as well as to other life history, plant size and flower size.

    I left having my prior belief abundantly confirmed: botany is awesome. I mean, think about it. You can go outside, in your own neighborhood, and study biology. You can uproot your subjects and transplant them somewhere else, to watch how well they do. If they die, well, that's a data point, not an ethical emergency! Worried about gene-environment interactions? No problem, just put samples of all your subjects in the same greenhouse and wait. Need to isolate a QTL against a uniform genetic background? Cool, just repeatedly backcross it into an inbred line for a few generations, selecting for the trait each time. Want to study genetic correlations? Well, you can breed a thousand plants and select for any trait you want!

    Oh, and if you want to, you can clone them.

    Let's look at an example, from the Heredity review:

    Recent work on floral evolution demonstrates that fundamental evolutionary questions can be addressed in Mimulus through the combination of field experiments and modern genomic approaches. Bradshaw et al. (1995, 1998) pioneered the application of genome mapping to study of ecologically important traits in Mimulus using RAPD and allozyme markers to map floral QTLs underlying the divergence between red-flowered, hummingbird-pollinated M. cardinalis and pink-flowered, bee-pollinated M. lewisii. The initial mapping experiments, with hybrid phenotypes measured in controlled greenhouse environments, revealed QTLs with major effects on virtually every floral character studied, from coloration and morphology to nectar production. To determine the effect of these QTLs on pollinator visitation and discrimination, Schemske and Bradshaw (1999) moved the genotyped hybrids to a field site near one of the few regions where the species coexist, and observed bee and hummingbird visitation behavior. Amazingly, the M. cardinalis allele at a single QTL, YELLOW UPPER (YUP), was responsible for an 80% loss of visitation by bee pollinators, and the M. cardinalis allele at a QTL responsible for variation in nectar production doubled hummingbird visitation (Schemske and Bradshaw, 1999). Bradshaw and Schemske (2003) subsequently created near-isogenic lines (NILs), where heterospecific alleles at YUP were reciprocally introgressed into the parental genetic backgrounds, and evaluated the response of pollinators to the NILs in the field. They observed an even clearer pattern of pollinator discrimination due to this locus, with a 74-fold increase in bee visitation in M. cardinalis NILs that carried the M. lewisii YUP allele, and a 68-fold increase in hummingbird visitation in M. lewisii NILs with the M. cardinalis YUP allele. Although the ecological context, in this case the community of potential pollinators, is certainly important to the evolution of new pollinator associations, these results also demonstrate that single genomic regions can have a large effect on major evolutionary transitions (Wu et al. 2008: 224-225).

    The talk was mostly focused on the Mimulus guttatus complex, where some of the most pressing issues are life history, drought tolerance, and tolerance of high mineral concentrations, such as salt or copper. They were able to trace many QTL's of small effect with relation to the major differences in life history and moisture requirements in ecogeographic races of M. guttatus, to show that the within-population variation for these traits is caused by high-frequency (likely balanced) alleles rather than mutation-selection balance or rare alleles, and to find the correlated responses to selection of different plant traits based on different QTL's.

    With respect to the genetics of speciation and ecogeographic race formation, they are helped by a long history of research on Mimulus. For example:

    Macnair and Christie (1983) performed the first direct genetic analysis of hybrid incompatibilities in Mimulus. While studying the genetic basis of copper tolerance in California populations of M. guttatus, they noticed that some crosses between plants from the copper mines and certain other populations resulted in F1s that died as young seedlings. Further crossing studies revealed that the F1 lethality was caused by a deleterious epistatic interaction between the copper tolerance allele from the mine populations (or a gene tightly linked to it) and alleles at an unknown number of different loci from the other populations. Such deleterious interlocus interactions, usually referred to as Dobzhansky–Muller (D-M) incompatibilities, are thought to be the major cause of low hybrid fitness in plants and animals (reviewed in Coyne and Orr, 2004). Remarkably, it appeared that natural selection for copper tolerance had indirectly resulted in the evolutionary origin of the hybrid incompatibility (Wu et al. 2008:226).

    So yes, say what you want, botany is awesome. Plus, there's one more thing: I sat through an entire lecture about natural selection and ecological differentiation of species and races, and never once heard the word, "bottleneck." It was like traveling to some kind of bizarro world where biologists still read Darwin!

    So we come down to the really difficult question: which variety am I going to plant? Mimulus glabratus is native here in Wisconsin, including Dane County, but it is not very showy, and prefers wet habitat. That makes it a poor fit for my native plant patch, which is dry/mesic, and which I never water unless the black-eyed Susans and bee balms start to wilt. Mimulus ringens is prettier, with bigger, lavender flowers, but also likes it wet.

    I guess I'll have to keep looking. M. lewisii is a pretty variant, if I can find a good source for it, and I can keep it in one of the wetter corners of the yard. I would try for M. cardinalis, since we have hummingbirds sometimes, but I'd like to get Lobelia cardinalis going also, and it's a lot easier to find. Besides, it hardly looks like a monkey!

    References:

    Wu CA, Lowry DB, Cooley AM, Wright KM, Lee YW, Willis JH. 2008. Mimulus is an emerging model system for the integration of ecological and genomic studies. Heredity 100:220-230. doi:10.1038/sj.hdy.6801018

  • FOXP2 is really recent, it really did introgress (if it's not contamination)

    Fri, 2008-04-18 10:34 -- John Hawks

    That's the thrust of a technical comment by Graham Coop and colleagues, now online in Molecular Biology and Evolution. The letter refers to the extraction of FOXP2 from two Neandertal specimens from El Sidrón, by Johannes Krause and colleagues, reported last year (I wrote about the paper here).

    First, the bad news. The current letter raises the prospect of contamination. Notably, the controls applied by Krause et al. (2007) may be relatively weak evidence against contamination, because of polymorphism within large human comparative samples. The tests rely on the assumption that there is little DNA from living humans in the samples. But if we cannot distinguish Neandertal from human DNA with great accuracy, then we will be mistaken some proportion of the time. Krause et al.'s test, based on derived human alleles absent from the Neandertal genome draft, can still go wrong if the human contaminants happen to have all the ancestral (non-derived) human alleles.

    Well, that seems to be the story these days with Neandertal DNA extraction. No test of contamination is good enough. (And remember, that every "test" of contamination is really a procedure for excluding the hypothesis that ancient sequences are identical to recent ones.)

    Now, the more interesting news. Coop and colleagues verify that the selective sweep affecting human FOXP2 was indeed recent -- they estimate 42,000 years ago:

    To demonstrate this, we estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the selected haplotype (see Figure 1), using an approach sometimes called phylogenetic dating (Thomson et al. 2000; Hudson 2007). This method does not make assumptions about demography and selection, but only requires that the mutations in the intron be neutral or nearly neutral. Taking this approach, we obtained a mean tMRCA of 42 Kya (see SOM for details). While there is considerable uncertainty associated with this estimate, it is surprisingly recent if selection took place over 300 Kya (see SOM). In other words, the selective scenario proposed by the authors cannot account readily for patterns of variation in modern humans. Given that we have no power to detect a beneficial substitution that occurred over 250 Kya, (cf. Sabeti et al. 2006) yet we see a footprint of positive selection at FOXP2, the conclusion of a recent selective sweep at FOXP2 is not surprising (Coop et al. 2008:3-4).

    FOXP2 is in one of the ENCODE regions, so its variation is pretty well known. This is not a problematic case: it has a very limited amount of variation around it, and has a strong excess of rare alleles, both signs of a recent sweep.

    Coop and colleagues suggest that the beneficial human allele spread into Neandertals (or vice versa) by low levels of gene flow coupled with its selective advantage -- in other words, introgression.

    They do allow for an alternative -- perhaps the two amino-acid-coding mutations were not the target of selection, but instead some linked locus. This would not erase the necessity of gene flow from Neandertals, but would question whether this gene flow had involved the FOXP2-language scenario, since it might be some linked gene unrelated to language.

    (CORRECTION (2008/04/18): If selection were on a linked site, then Neandertals might share the human-derived amino acids as a result of ancient shared ancestry with humans, while the linked selected sweep might be absent in Neandertals, not necessitating any gene flow.)

    I doubt this hypothesis of a linked sweep, since the two sites with human-derived substitutions are otherwise very strongly conserved among mammals. This looks like a credible target for recent selection. But the hypothesis of selection on a linked site cannot presently be tested.

    So that's the story. It seems very likely that Neandertals got the language gene from us, or us from them, long after many other genes in the two populations diverged. I write "many" rather than "most" because we haven't really been able to assess the proportion of derived alleles shared by humans and Neandertals. The completion of the draft sequence may help, but I'm afraid that the specter of contamination is going to keep on being raised whenever a part of the Neandertal draft genome looks humanlike.

    (via Dienekes)

    References:

    Coop G, Bullaughey K, Luca F, Przeworski M. 2008. The timing of selection at the human FOXP2 gene. Mol Biol Evol (in press) doi:10.1093/molbev/msn091

  • Why have variants influencing recombination rate been selected in non-Africans?

    Sat, 2008-03-08 10:47 -- John Hawks

    A complicated story is tangled through this paper by Augustine Kong and colleagues, and I don't see where it may end. But here's the abstract:

    The genome-wide recombination rate varies between individuals, but the mechanism controlling this variation in humans has remained elusive. A genome-wide search identified sequence variants in the 4p16.3 region correlated with recombination rate in both males and females. These variants are located in the RNF212 gene, a putative ortholog of the ZHP-3 gene that is essential for recombinations and chiasma formation in Caenorhabditis elegans. It is noteworthy that the haplotype formed by two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the highest recombination rate in males is associated with a low recombination rate in females. Consequently, if the frequency of the haplotype changes, the average recombination rate will increase for one sex and decrease for the other, but the sex-averaged recombination rate of the population can stay relatively constant.

    Perhaps it's not so curious that alleles of this gene have opposite effects on recombination in males and females. The mechanisms of gamete production are obviously different in the two sexes, and we might expect some kind of frequency-dependent mechanism to regulate recombination. At least, it's a hypothesis.

    What I find mysterious is this:

    A phylogenetic analysis of a 55-kb region containing rs3796619 and rs1670533 in the HapMap data (24) revealed three well-differentiated clusters of haplotypes showing notable differences in frequency between the Yoruban Nigerians (YRI) and CEU and East Asians (CHB and JPT) (fig. S6). The [C,T] and [T,C] haplotypes that associate most strongly with recombination rate have a combined frequency of only 17% in the YRI sample, but reach a frequency of 91% and 98% in the CEU and East Asian samples, respectively. Several SNPs in this region show an unusual degree of divergence among the HapMap groups, on the basis of the rank percentile of their FST values (Wright's coefficient, a measure of variance in allele frequencies among populations) among all autosomal SNPs with the same overall frequency in the HapMap. Specifically, we identified eight SNPs whose FST values are in the top 0.5% for differences between the YRI and East Asian HapMap samples and also in the top 5% of differences between the YRI and CEU samples. Each of these SNPs differentiated a subset of [T,T] haplotypes from the rest, perhaps indicating an episode of positive selection (or a severe founder effect) that increased the frequency of [C,T] and [T,C] haplotypes in the ancestors of European and East Asian populations.

    The [C,T] and [T,C] haplotypes are the ones associated with increased recombination rate in males and females, respectively. The markers are in strong disequilibrium (no [C,C] haplotypes were observed), and seem to have been selected outside of Africa.

    I have no idea why.

    The recombination rates were all inferred from a large Icelandic sample, so maybe the rates don't really characterize the haplotypes in other populations. Maybe recombination rate is incidental to the real reason for the selection. Or maybe in populations roaring with positive selection on many genes at once, it is a good thing to break them apart more often.

    References:

    Kong A and 16 others. 2008. Sequence variants in the RNF212 gene associate with genome-wide recombination rate. Science 319:1398-1401. doi:10.1126/science.1152422

  • Bees R Us

    Tue, 2008-02-26 08:10 -- John Hawks

    The PNAS Early Edition this week includes a paper by bee genome researchers Amro Zayed and Charles Whitfield. After a short review of honeybee phylogeny, they demonstrate two things:

    1. An ancient dispersal of honeybees from Africa into Europe was accompanied by a pulse of positive selection on coding genes, amounting to selection on approximately 10 percent of bee genes.

    2. As Africanized bees have spread across South and into North America, adaptive genes from the existing populations of European bees have introgressed into the Africanized population, increasing under positive selection.

    These are remarkable parallels to the worldwide evolution of humans. In bees, the geographic pattern is not the same, and the timescale is different, but the overall genetic impact is quite similar.

    Here's the bee history:

    In its native range, A. mellifera is classified into approximately two dozen subspecies, which are further organized into four major geographically and genetically distinct groups: African, Western and Central Asian (hereafter referred to as Asian), Eastern European, and Western and Northern European (hereafter referred to as West European) (9-11). European honey bees were introduced by humans to the New World by European settlers as early as the 1600s. In Brazil in 1956, an intentional introduction of African honey bees (A. mellifera scutellata), which hybridized with previously introduced European bees, led to the establishment and spread of the highly invasive and economically devastating Africanized honey bees in North America and South America (12). Subsequent studies have shown that Africanized bees are predominantly African in ancestry with minor but consistent contribution from European genotypes (11, 12). Using recently developed SNP panels, Whitfield et al . (11) demonstrated that the honey bee originated in Africa and subsequently expanded into Eurasia in two or more independent ancient expansions. One expansion gave rise to Western European honey bees, and at least one other independent expansion gave rise to Asian and Eastern European honey bees. Honey bee subspecies vary in a host of phenotypic traits, such as morphology, behavior, physiology, and gene expression (9-11, 13, 14) (Zayed and Whitfield 2008:3421).

    I was not aware of the initial dispersals of bees into Europe and Asia. The genetic data show that the Western European strains are the ones with the most adaptive evolution since their dispersal from Africa. The separate ancient bee dispersals were documented by Whitfield et al. (2006), but they were not able to provide date estimates for the ancient dispersals, and none are attempted in this study.

    This is the kind of test that ought to fail in most wild populations. Without a shift in the adaptive landscape, the fraction of new mutations with potential adaptive value is bound to be small -- because species are optimized to the environments that they have occupied for a long time. But European bees have a number of recent environmental changes, ranging from the simple effect of moving from a tropical to a temperate environment, the need to use new and different flora, and the effects of domestication. In a very numerous, rapidly dispersing species, these effects led to a rapid adaptive response in a large proportion of genes. These are the basic principles underlying the recent acceleration of positive selection in our lineage also.

    The introgression of European genes into the dispersing Africanized bees in the Americas is interesting, because it seems counter-intuitive. The main differences between Africanized bees and European bees involve adaptations to climate. European bees put up lots of honey for the winter, and swarm less frequently, in addition to being more sedate. African bees don't bother with as much honey, which together with their more frequent swarming would seem to be a good fit for the tropical pattern of seasonality. These African traits explain why the African bees have spread at the expense of the European bees across the tropical New World. But Africanized bees have picked up a lot of genes from the European bees in the New World.

    The authors propose some possible explanations:

    The adaptive value of functional (coding) portions of Western European genomes could be related to positive selection on novel variation in West European bees, to positive selection on novel hybrid gene combinations, and/or to selection for heterozygous genotypes. Our study thus provides direct evidence that invasive populations can exploit hybridization in an adaptive fashion -- a finding of immense relevance to understanding the dynamics of biological invasions (Zayed and Whitfield 2008:3424).

    In other words, behavioral correlates of climate may be a target of selection and introgression -- I would speculate because of the intrinsic rarity of adaptive mutations in these functions.

    This is a relatively course-grained analysis of positive selection, since the study basically averages within SNP categories, determining FST between pairs of populations. For non-coding SNPs, the Africanized bees are very similar to African bees (FST = 0.05), while for coding SNPs they are twice as divergent (FST = 0.10). That's a lot of difference in allele frequencies over a short time; it must have been caused by strong positive selection across a broad sample of loci. They do not attempt the same kind of "10% of genes" estimate for the introgression, but their figures show that it is quite significant across their data.

    I don't know but it may be a while before this initial study can be followed up with recombination based selection tests, because of this little known fact: bees have a recombination rate of 19 cM/Mb -- roughly 15 times higher than humans. Still, Whitfield et al. (2006) found an excess of linkage disequilibrium in the West European subspecies of bees. It now seems likely that some of this LD is explained by the widespread selection documented in the current study.

    In other words, the genetic structure of global bee populations provides another strong example of the importance of rapid evolution in abundant species, coupled with ecological changes. Bees also now provide a strong example of adaptive introgression -- in this case, within a very tightly timed dispersal with known climatic conditions.

    References:

    Zayed A, Whitfield CW. 2008. A genome-wide signature of positive selection in ancient and recent invasive expansions of the honey bee Apis mellifera. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 105:3421-3426. doi:10.1073/pnas.0800107105

    Whitfield CW and 9 others. 2006. Thrice out of Africa: Ancient and recent expansions of the honey bee, Apis mellifera. Science 314:642-645. doi:10.1126/science.1132772

  • Why accelerated adaptive evolution is faster evolution

    Sun, 2007-12-23 18:20 -- John Hawks

    RPM at Evolgen has a post raising a concern I've been seeing a lot the last week or two:

    If you add up all three classes of mutations -- deleterious, neutral, and beneficial -- and figure out how many have fixed over the time scale you're looking at, you get the amount of evolutionary change along the lineage in question. So, to say that there was increased evolution along the human lineage in recent history implies that there was an increase in the total number of genetic changes. However, an increase in the amount of adaptive evolution (or an increase in the number of mutations fixed by positive selection), means there was an increase in the number of beneficial changes along the human lineage in recent history.

    Here's the point in a nutshell:

    1. Our recent acceleration paper suggests that the rate of adaptive human evolution has vastly increased during the past 40,000 years.

    2. Some people confuse the idea of adaptive evolution with the idea of neutral evolution.

    3. We can't let this happen, because, well, choose one: (a) we're good acolytes of Stephen Jay Gould; (b) people might start suggesting that all the human phylogeography based on "neutral" loci is irrelevant or worse; (c) we have a deep concern with the pattern of evolution of gene variants that don't actually do anything interesting.

    I tend to notice that the various critiques of acceleration don't include any mathematics. I don't really understand this, since the math is simple. It is a whole lot easier to look at this algebra than to write a four or five-paragraph blog post!

    So, let's consider some of the mathematical relations describing neutral evolution and how they apply to the recent increase in human population numbers.

    1. The expected change in frequency of a neutral allele each generation is zero. That is, after all, why we call them neutral.

    2. But the variance in the change in frequency of a neutral allele is related to population size -- in fact it is p(1 - p)/2Ne, where Ne is the effective population size (actually the variance effective size).

    3. Because of this relation, neutral alleles in large populations change more slowly in frequency than those in small populations. Once human populations reached an effective size on the order of 100,000 -- certainly by 40,000 years ago -- the change in allele frequency due to drift alone became extremely small (on the order of 10-6 or less per generation).

    4. So neutral evolution in the past 40,000 years should have vastly slowed compared to earlier phases of human evolution.

    Except...

    5. Changes in population size make absolutely no difference to the neutral substitution rate. The rate of generation of new neutral mutations is directly proportional to population size (2Neu for an autosomal locus). But the rate of fixation is inversely proportional to population size (1/2Ne). So the neutral substitution rate is simply u: the neutral mutation rate, irrespective of population size. That's part of what makes the neutral substitution rate cool -- and of course, what underlies the molecular clock assumption.

    6. From this, we might conclude that the rate of neutral evolution was absolutely unchanged in the last 40,000 years. Of course, now it is obvious that the problem is what we mean by "rate" -- do we mean the substitution rate or the per-generation rate of change in allele frequency?

    Except...

    7. It should be obvious that we don't mean "neutral substitution rate" because this is irrelevant to recent human evolution. The fixation time of a new neutral mutation is directly proportional to the effective size of the population (4Ne generations for an autosomal locus). It doesn't take much figuring to show that is a long, long time from now with today's population size. There is no chance that a new neutral mutation within the last 40,000 years could be near fixation today -- in fact, every neutral segregating allele 40,000 years ago ought to still be segregating today!

    8. From that perspective, we might well conclude there has been no neutral evolution in the last 40,000 years -- because it is vanishingly unlikely that any neutral variation has been lost during that time.

    Except...

    9. Our study actually did find a large number of neutral areas of the genome that had recently approached fixation, and a much larger number of initially rare neutral variants that have reached substantial frequencies during the last 40,000 years. Empirically, neutral evolution has been very rapid during recent human history. This is entirely the result of ...

    10. Hitchhiking. The fast rate of generation of new adaptive mutations means that the rate of neutral evolution by hitchhiking has vastly accelerated in the recent past. This is, after all, how we manage to find evidence of selection in the first place -- the hitchhiking effect on neutral markers!

    Therefore, the rate of neutral evolution in humans really has accelerated, as a function of hitchhiking on new adaptive mutations. For every selected mutation, we are talking about hundreds of kilobases' worth of linked neutral variants that have been experiencing rapid changes in frequency due to hitchhiking. In the long run, this will have not a jot of effect on the neutral substitution rate, but it accounts for most of the neutral evolution of allele frequencies in human populations.

    I expect that there will be people who don't like this idea. I expect many of them have been counting on various neutral markers being informative about population movements. I'm not saying that neutral markers aren't informative, but we really need to consider the effects of selection on these distributions of markers.

    Another class of people who don't like this idea are those who propagate one of my pet peeves -- the idea that we need to "invoke" selection as some kind of extraordinary event. The use of this term is very clear: Its only purpose is to vilify folks who want to explain evolution in terms of Darwin's mechanism. It's precisely the same way that we vilify creationists -- they want to "invoke" supernatural forces to explain evolutionary changes.

    It's time to get the message -- natural selection has been the major force driving recent human evolution. Humans are no exception to the natural order -- any species that has increased in numbers and changed in ecology to the extent of ours should undergo a rapid pulse of selection resulting in the appearance and proliferation of many more new adaptive mutations. In fact, it looks like domesticated species like maize have undergone a similar effect. There's no "invoking" here, and neutrality is not a hypothesis that can explain these observations.

    The foregoing should make one thing very clear -- I have nothing against neutral evolution. I am not an "adaptationist", and have no stakes whatsoever in the "adaptationist-neutralist controversy". This is not a matter of preferences or verbal arguments -- it is simple algebra!

    What's more, its pretty obvious that this account of recent neutral evolutionis an evolutionary scenario of which Stephen Jay Gould would have been proud: the most widespread source of change in human genes is chance linkage to a relatively small number of selected sites.

    It's just that there are quite a few more of these selected sites than anybody probably expected to find.

  • Tracking back to acceleranistas

    Sun, 2007-12-16 21:03 -- John Hawks

    I've had a very busy couple of days, and haven't been maintaining my reading-and-linking as much as I had hoped. So I wanted to take a few minutes to do a quick tour of the blogosphere to see what people are saying about the idea of acceleration.

    I'm linking to posts I have read, and in some cases commented on. They are a mix of explanation of the concepts, applauding the ideas and analysis, and criticism of the methods. What I most want to point out is that the discussion on blogs is at a very high level -- people are reading the paper with much more precision than I have ever experienced in the peer review process. This is really the best that today's science community has to offer.

    One of the best posts is over at LiveJournal, where shoshin works through the theoretical part of the paper. Naturally, this is my favorite part -- and shoshin describes things exceptionally well. The beginning is great:

    The case for a recent acceleration of human evolution in the last 40K years (and especially the last 10K) follows pretty straightforwardly from evolutionary first principles combined with elementary facts about human history since the late Pleistocene. So straightforwardly, in fact, that you have to wonder why nobody thought of it sooner. It's one of those rare cases where the theoretical argument is so strong that you can pretty much use accordance with it as a test of experimental methods at least as much as the other way around.


    Razib works through the paper at Gene Expression, in a long, detailed post. I like this part:

    We are now the most numerous large mammal on the face of this planet. Using the data above the authors imply that our species has been subject to somewhat more that 1/2 a substitution per year. Remember, a substitution is a replacement of one allele for another at a locus on a population wide scale. If this is correct that means right now every few years alleles driven by selection are being fixed within our species.


    At the old-school Gene Expression, p-ter posts some analysis and critiques. A great comments section has arisen on this post, including comments from some of the principals, and general comments about the quality of the discussion on blogs compared to the journal process. I've answered some of the points in my rarely asked questions post, but the most powerful part bears repeating:

    Every distribution has a tail, so if they were to move their threshold a bit further to the right, surely they'd be able to narrow down the number of regions to something consistent with a constant rate. That is, the entire argument is predicated on perfectly identifying selection in the regions of the parameter space they search. This is a major assumption, and not one I'm willing to make without strong evidence. They provide none.

    Actually, with an acceleration of around two orders of magnitude, we can tolerate a lot of slop in the estimates. We don't need to perfectly identify selection -- in fact, we'd still have strong support for rapid acceleration if we threw away 95 percent of our data! Naturally, we don't have to do that -- our methods are based on a threshold that eliminates nearly all false positives, and we are missing the vast majority of events. For one thing, the LDD test doesn't find selection on multiple alleles at the same locus. I am working on new methods that will find some of these kinds of events, but for the time being we continue to interpret all things conservatively.


    Andrew Sullivan posts approvingly:

    I posted on this potentially world-changing research this afternoon. Here's a helpful, chatty, specialist blog with lots of extra links if you're scientifically literate and curious.

    What I want to know is, sure, Razib is helpful and chatty, but what am I, chopped liver?


    Larry Moran has added several posts on the research, starting with this one:

    In addition to the major flaw in logic, there are many other things wrong with the claim that modern humans have stopped evolving. The claim carries with it a very loaded assumption that is never explicitly stated. The assumption is that humans have pretty much reached their optimal level of fitness for all other characteristics. For example, we are no longer selecting for higher intelligence, or a better immune system, or more efficient energy production, or stronger muscles, or any of a host of other things that might make us better adapted to all environments.

    Why is this assumption necessary? Because nobody could possibly suggest that we have stopped evolving without assuming that we have reached optimal fitness for all those things in our present environment.

    Larry follows with several other posts, some critical, focused in part on the problem of how much evolution is explained by positive selection as opposed to other forces.


    Nature's blog, "The Great Beyond" notes the paper and the resulting discussion.


    More will follow...

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Neandertals

For years, I've worked on their bones. Now I'm working on their genes. Read more about the science studying these ancient people.

Denisova

From a finger bone of an ancient human came the record of a completely unexpected population. My lab is working on the science of the Denisova genome.

Acceleration

The advent of agriculture caused natural selection to speed up greatly in humans. We're uncovering some of the ways that populations have rapidly changed during the last 10,000 years.

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