history

New data on Ashkenazi population history

Bray and colleagues [1] report on genotyping of 471 people of Ashkenazi Jewish descent. This is one of the largest samples of a single human population, and is therefore very interesting for studies of population history and recent natural selection.

There's a lot in the paper. One of the key findings in the paper is that the Ashkenazi population doesn't look bottlenecked -- in fact, it looks outbred compared to Europeans generally. The paper also documents a high amount of admixture with non-Ashkenazi Europeans, ranging from 35% to 55%. Figuring out the actual history of the population -- when and where its ancestors lived and how they interacted with other people -- is beyond the scope of this kind of analysis. But I expect that somebody can put together a really compelling historical account using these data.

I turned quickly to the issue of selection. They are able to substantiate evidence of positive selection on several disease-causing alleles in the Ashkenazi population, including the Tay-Sachs allele. The lack of evidence for bottlenecks or founder effects pretty much takes away the alternative explanation. Yet they were unable to show statistical evidence of selection on some other disease-causing alleles in Ashkenazi populations:

To explore whether regions of selection in the AJ population included any loci of known Ashkenazi diseases, we examined 21 disease- and cancer-susceptibility loci with known mutations found at higher frequency in the Ashkenazi population. Only 6 of the 21 genes fell in or near (within 500 kb) the top 5% of the AJ iHS windows (Table 2). Among these is the Tay-Sachs disease gene, HEXA, whose selection has been widely debated (4, 5, 14–16) and was found ~400 kb downstream of a window on chromosome 15 identified in the top 1% of the AJ iHS hits. Although none of the SNPs interrogated immediately adjacent to the HEXA locus showed elevated iHS signals, it is possible that the nearby region may contain regulatory elements under selection that affect HEXA expression. Cochran et al. (14) speculated that selection of many of the AJ- prevalent disease loci, especially the lysosomal diseases, conferred an increase in intelligence that was necessary historically for the AJ economic survival. Our data shows evidence of strong selection at or near only six disease loci, including only one out of the four AJ- prevalent lysosomal storage diseases, thus arguing that most AJ disease loci are not under strong positive selection, but rather rose to their current frequency through genetic drift after a bottleneck. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that selection of some AJ disease loci are outside the limits of detection by the extended haplotype tests, which are known to have less power to detect se- lection of lower frequency alleles (38, 41).

It seems to me that this passage probably wasn't written by the same author who showed the lack of evidence for founder effects a few pages before. In this case, the confusion probably comes from the fact that the "detection of positive selection" is actually a refutation of the hypothesis of genetic drift. With a larger sample it will be possible to test the hypothesis with greater power.

Ddisease-causing alleles are at low frequencies currently, making them unlikely to rise to the top percentages of the statistics. It would be interesting to control for current frequency, but I haven't seen a test that uses frequency information in this way.

It's quite remarkable to reflect on the idea that positive selection has now been demonstrated on six disease-causing alleles in the Ashkenazi population. Every one of these is a case of overdominance -- where the heterozygote carrying an allele has some selective advantage, while the homozygote carrying two copies has a disorder. I was having a conversation with a very prominent geneticist a few months ago, who claimed that no case of overdominance in humans had ever been demonstrated except sickle cell. Now, that was obviously false even at the time -- as I pointed out, the many hemoglobinopathies are fairly clear examples. But we've come an awfully long way.

From data like these, we're going to learn a huge amount about low-frequency selected alleles. The Tay-Sachs-causing allele is one of the most common recessive lethal genes in any human population, but like all genes subject to strong selection in homozygotes, it remains rare. Finding selection on these kinds of alleles is very hard unless sample sizes increase to several hundred individuals. Here we are seeing evidence of selection in historic populations -- within the last 2000 years. More will be coming.


References

Samurai lead poisoning

An interesting study has shown how people in the samurai class of Edo period Japan were poisoning their children with lead. The results are reported in a current paper in the Journal of Archaeological Science by Tamiji Nakashima and colleagues [1]. They applied forensic techniques to skeletal remains from the period.

Lead poisoning has long been suspected as a factor affecting the aristocracy of late imperial Rome. There, the causes were mainly in the plumbing, made as it was from plumbum. But in Japan, the guilty party was makeup:

In view of the higher contamination in female bone than male, we assumed that facial cosmetics (white lead) were one of the main sources of lead exposure. During the Edo period, cosmetics became popular and the vogue was usually introduced by Kabuki actors, courtesans and geisha through ukiyoe prints and popular literature, and by beauticians who helped establish fashions. The white face powders used in those days were keifun (mercury chloride) and empaku (white lead). Mercury chloride was imported mainly from China, and white lead was popular in Japan, although the toxic nature of lead cosmetics was not recognized. Ikutarou Hirai, the first professor of the Department of Pediatrics at Kyoto University, revealed in 1923 that “so-called tentative meningitis” of infants was actually caused by lead-containing face powder used by mothers (Horiguchi, 2006).

They haven't been explicit about how the lead was transferred from mother to infant, it may just have been incidental contact and consumption. The consequences were in a few cases severe:

From the anatomical point of view, there were five cases in which anomalies of bone were seen (Fig. 1). These were hypertrophy of the long bones and a few lead lines or lead bands. These roentgenographic pictures of dense metaphyseal bands seen in the growing long bones of children with lead poisoning are familiar to radiologists (Leone, 1968). These anomalies were seen in all the long bones of the upper and lower extremities in the five cases. Sachs (1981) reported that the appearance of a lead line required a minimum blood lead concentration (PbB) of 70-80 μg / dL.

They also speculate as to possible psychopathology resulting from the lead exposure.

I think it's interesting to find these cases where technology, adopted first by the elites, ends up biting them with unanticipated side effects. Usually they don't even know what hit them.


References

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Eric Michael Johnson, formerly of Primate Diaries, writes:

"Scientific Ethics and the Myth of Stalin's Ape-Man Superwarriors".

The title refers to the myth that Stalin was involved in the research by Ilya Ivanov to artificially inseminate chimpanzees with human sperm ("King Kong humanzee trivia"). The story has been repeated by many sources, and while Ivanov's research was real, the link to Stalin is not. Johnson has a nice description of the background to Ivanov's research, with references.

We were watching MonsterQuest on the History Channel the other night, and they were showing the one about "Stalin's Ape Men". I rather like MonsterQuest because they usually end up acknowledging in the last five minutes that there's no evidence for what they were looking for. Not always, mind you, and of course it's manipulative because they've edited it that way. In this case, they concluded the episode with the historian explaining that there was no evidence at all that Stalin had any interest in ape-human hybrids.

But what really stuck with me was the animation of clone-looking gorilla-men marching through Red Square. That would have been the most ludicrous army of all time!

Peter Heather's Empires and Barbarians begins with a chapter summarizing grand theories of demography and social transformation among near-prehistoric peoples of Europe.

Both classical sources and pre-1960 scholarship tended to explain events in terms of the wholesale migration of demes of people. In later years, it has become more common to deny the importance of demic migration, instead invoking elite migration and dominance, demic diffusion, or other schemes.

I'm not reviewing the chapter here but I wanted to record a quote from Heather's page 19:

[A] basic equation has grown up in the minds of some archaeologists between any model of the past involving population movement, and simple-mindedness. As a recent introduction to early medieval cemeteries put it, avoiding migration in explanations of archaeological change 'is simply to dispose of an always simplistic and usually groundless supposition in order to enable its replacement with a more subtle interpretation of the period'. Note the language, particularly the contrast between 'simplistic' and 'groundless' (the world dominated by migration) with 'more subtle' (any other kind of explanation). The message here is loud and clear. Anyone dealing with the geographical displacement of archaeologically observable artefact types or habits, who wants to produce an account of the past that is at all 'subtle' or 'complex', should avoid migration at all costs. The tables have turned. From a position of overwhelming dominance before the 1960s, migration has become the great Satan of archaeological explanation.

What a way of capturing the sneers of critics following a fad. Better to be "subtle" and "complex" than "simplistic"!

James McWilliams comments on the simple, local foods movement: "The Persistence of the Primitive Food Movement". His theme, with several interesting historical examples, is that Americans have always looked nostalgically on a simpler, rustic diet.

But did people living in the 1860s really see themselves as eating a simple diet? Not so much. This was an era of frequent food adulteration, with consumer goods being leavened by sawdust, engine grease, plaster of Paris, pipe clay and God knows what else. Responding to the increasing complexity of food in 1870, John Cowan, author of What to Eat; And How to Cook It, lambasted Americans for eating “conglomerate mixtures”—ingredients “mixed in all shapes, in all measures, and under all conditions.” He insisted that these overly processed foods not only led to “a clogged brain” but also a “sickly and unenjoyable life.”

McWilliams seems to intend his essay as an argument against Michael Pollan and other local food-ists. I don't agree; it seems to me (and many commenters on that essay) that observing the recurrent ideological basis of American diet doesn't detract from the basic economic and health arguments for small foods. In some ways, the American diet has always been pulled by opposing trends. In one direction, industrialization and mass production. In the other, tradition and the craft of cookery. The uniquely American character is the integration of dozens of regional and international traditions into a mass market culture.

It's a pleasure here in Madison to go to the market and rely on local produce, meats and cheeses. And beers. It's an appreciation of the craft that goes into their production.

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A reader passes along a link to the Popular Science archive, now available free.

So naturally, I searched immediately for "Australopithecus". And in the April 1925 issue, they covered Raymond Dart's discovery at Taung. The short article appears on the same page as a picture of an early tanning bed (complete with topless woman) and a rather short Javan man standing next to a rather tall Titan arum flower. Here's one of the five paragraphs:

The difference between men and animals is associated with the size of certain parts of the brain. The Pithecanthropus, the oldest man known, from the shape of a skull found, is judged to have been a creature who could speak. Judging again from the shape of its skull, Professor Dart says that the newly discovered manlike ape could not yet speak, but had a brain much more developed than that of an ape. That is, the brain was enlarged in those parts associated with human characteristics.

Isn't it remarkable how much more information articles about human evolution pack in today?

Hmmm...why did I never get into Popular Science when I was a kid? Here's a clue: after 1925, "Australopithecus" doesn't appear in the archive again until 1993!

Nature this week gave Jared Diamond the chance to review two books about archaeology and "collapse" -- The Cambridge Companion to the Aegean Bronze Age (which he liked), and Questioning Collapse: Human Resilience, Ecological Vulnerability, and the Aftermath of Empire (which he didn't like).

Diamond's book, Collapse, has been a target of criticism by anthropologists since it was released. I noted some of these critiques in 2005. So it's interesting to see how Diamond responds to McAnany and Yoffee's Questioning Collapse. Much comes down to how different people define "collapse".

It makes no sense to me to redefine as heart-warmingly resilient a society in which everyone ends up dead, or in which most of the population vanishes, or that loses writing, state government and great art for centuries. As Questioning Collapse shows, that naively optimistic redefinition inevitably forces one to distort history and to avoid trying to explain what really happened. Even when many people do survive and eventually reestablish a populous complex society, the initial decline is sufficiently important to warrant being honestly called a collapse and studied further. We today, who face similar problems and could face similar fates, will not be consoled by the thought that our grandchildren might exhibit resilience.

Well, a society is sure to lose its monumental architecture and indigenous writing systems when everybody dies, but it might lose them for other reasons. If people tire of a bloodthirsty death cult (like Congress), should we mourn its demise? When archaeologists can document a "collapse" of residential, agricultural, or ceremonial systems, the demographic impact might well have been bad, but it's rarely obviously so. And the connection between these "collapses" and political, economic, or ecological conditions -- connections that are essential to Diamond's thesis about collapse -- tend to resist simplistic causal explanations.

I looked at Savage Minds, hoping they'd picked up on this sentence from Diamond's review:

Another essay describes a New Guinean man named Yali, giving a lengthy reinterpretation of his views about the European colonization of New Guinea in the light of the experiences of another man with the same name — not realizing that the two Yalis were different people, 40 years apart in age and with dissimilar life stories and opinions.

Diamond himself doesn't explain the significance of his point: "Yali's question" ("Why do you whites have so much cargo?") appears a central organizing element of Diamond's Guns Germs and Steel. It's an underlying agenda that isn't transparent to most readers of the review.

I think that the reality is somewhere in between. Human societies have failed for all kinds of reasons. Many of these I would be hard-pressed to describe as "tragic" -- much of the cultural production in complex societies comes from elites, most of which have been oppressive. Starvation, subfertility, and disease have been depressingly common, but I don't think most such "collapses" could have been prevented by better decision-making.

UPDATE (2010-03-04): Frequent Diamond watchdog Stinky Journalism is on the story.

References:

Diamond J. 2010. Two views of collapse. Nature 463:880-881. doi:10.1038/463880a

The other New York Times Magazine article that I found interesting this weekend (following up on yesterday's post) is about the Texas State Board of Education and its attempts to revise textbook standards for history teaching.

Texas is regularly in the headlines because of its heft as a textbook buyer. Its statewide education guidelines influence what will be available to the rest of the country, which becomes a frequent source of aid and comfort for creationism whenever the state's biology education standards are revised.

It's not biology this year, its history -- but some similar conflicts have arisen. The main point of contention is the way to portray religion's role in the early United States, and the article, by Russell Shorto, reviews some pertinent facts and opinions, and profiles the nationwide forces behind members of the Texas Board of Education.

IN 1801, A GROUP of Baptist ministers in Danbury, Conn., wrote a letter to the new president, Thomas Jefferson, congratulating him on his victory. They also had a favor to ask. Baptists were a minority group, and they felt insecure. In the colonial period, there were two major Christian factions, both of which derived from England. The Congregationalists, in New England, had evolved from the Puritan settlers, and in the South and middle colonies, the Anglicans came from the Church of England. Nine colonies developed state churches, which were supported financially by the colonial governments and whose power was woven in with that of the governments. Other Christians — Lutherans, Baptists, Quakers — and, of course, those of other faiths were made unwelcome, if not persecuted outright.

Nowadays people think that "disestablishmentarianism" is just an example of an inordinately long word to use in spelling bees. They don't seem to remember meaning of the word, from the movement to disestablish State religions within the United States. A good nutshell version of the history is given by Olds (1994, who, as an aside, was mainly interested in whether the resulting "privatization" of religion could explain the high religious identification in the United States). The movement to disestablish churches was in part driven by Jeffersonians, and in part by churches themselves, which became more and more unwilling to cede doctrinal decisions to a public vote of their congregrations. Until disestablishment, people in these states were taxed to support the church.

Now, I'm betting that little historical episode isn't part of many high school history curricula. I imagine students are still forced to learn about the Bank of the United States, going on around the same time, but how many of those history lessons even try to connect the concept to the Federal Reserve?

Anyway, the article is mainly interesting for its cast of characters, including perennial creationist board member Don McLeroy and frequent-flying Liberty University law professor and Texas board member Cynthia Dunbar. These people are able to demand extraordinary changes from publishers, supported as they are by an ersatz network of legal activists and foundations around the country. I think the article makes essential background to understanding the issues with evolution education.

Razib's "10 questions for Peter Turchin", population dynamist and historical theoretician, is well worth reading.

A short excerpt:

The main defensive mechanism is to ignore us, which is what 95% of historians do. That's fine with me. In fact, I was pleasantly surprised by the positive reception of these ideas among historical social scientists and the (estimated) 5% of historians. It suggests to me that the time of cliodynamics has come. Incidentally, we are launching a peer-reviewed journal this year.

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Darwin's mitochondria

I'm always skeptical when pathologists attempt to diagnose the ills of historical figures. Even if there are medical records or abundant attestations of symptoms from contemporary sources, people in the past had different ways of describing the observations that doctors today collect.

But that doesn't stop people from trying. Last month, John Hayman published a paper in the British Medical Journal that claims a new diagnosis for the lifelong malady that Darwin described in his own journals and correspondence:

Darwin’s symptoms are those of cyclical vomiting syndrome. Although this is primarily a disease of children it may persist into adulthood or may appear for the first time in adulthood. The disease is related to classic migraine and abdominal migraine but is also linked to abnormalities of mitochondrial DNA, with mutations in the MTTL1 gene. This disease is neither well known nor well recognised, particularly in adults, although it was first described in the English literature in 1882.

People with cyclical vomiting syndrome experience abdominal, circulatory, and cerebral symptoms, including headaches and anxiety. Symptoms overlap with those of classic and abdominal migraine, except for a lack of aura. Affected people may experience some or all of these symptoms, with each individual having similar symptoms with each episode. Over time, however, progression or change may occur in the most prominent feature, and episodes may coalesce. Many people report severe motion sickness, and this may be associated with a full episode.

It seems plausible enough, as much so as any retrospective diagnosis could probably be. It bears all the drawbacks of other attempts to diagnose historical figures.

A test of the hypothesis: mtDNA is maternally inherited and haploid, so symptoms are very likely to be shared by maternal relatives:

Darwin’s mother Susannah died with abdominal pain when he was 8. As a child she had vomiting and boils, experienced motion sickness, had excessive sickness during pregnancies, and "was never quite well." Her younger brother Tom had similar symptoms, with headaches, abdominal pains, and motion sickness. A sister, Sarah, considered that Charles and his uncle Tom had the same illness. Evidence of a matrilineal inheritance pattern is good, consistent with an abnormality of mitochondrial DNA.

It's a sad thing to affect a family.

Mitochondrial disorders are increasingly recognized as causes of chronic disease -- just the other day, a new study implicated defective mitochondria as causes of Parkinson's Disease. I think it's hilarious because there is a cadre of geneticists who depend on the notion that mtDNA is a neutral marker of population history.

Darwin's DNA has nothing to say about whether it was neutral on an evolutionary timescale, but every famous mtDNA functional mutation reminds us that there is biological function there, which is a target of selection under some circumstances.

(via Why Evolution Is True)

References:

Hayman JA. 2009. Darwin's illness revisited. Br Med J 339:b4968. doi:10.1136/bmj.b4968

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Phenotypic variance

I've intermittently been reading through William Provine's The Origins of Theoretical Population Genetics. It's related to a project simmering on my back burner.

Meanwhile, last week I was talking with some students about the recent papers at the AAPA meetings about natural selection as assessed by quantitative traits. The students thought that some of these papers had omitted some basic details that seemed obvious from the point of view of quantitative genetics. Also, George Armelagos had mentioned Raymond Pearl, so I figured as long as I'm reading about Pearl, William Castle, R. A. Fisher and their attitudes toward quantitative genetics, I might as well note a few passages from Provine's account.

Provine:

Fisher's express purpose in the paper was to interpret the well-established results of biometry in terms of Mendelian inheritance by ascertaining the biometrical properties of a Mendelian population.

I'll just pause to note that Fisher's formulation begins almost all textbooks in quantitative genetics and many in population genetics. The model that relates quantitative variation and genotypic variation is essential to all genetic analysis.

In particular, he wanted to show that Pearson was mistaken in concluding that the correlations between relatives in man contradicted the Mendelian scheme of inheritance. He began by defining a measure of the variability of a character in a population.

This is an essential step for any introduction to genetics also. I spend some time in all my courses talking about the relationship between genetic and phenotypic variation, using the measures of each as ways to talk about the ways they differ. We can analogize genetic variation to a digital readout -- you have a genotype, or a set of genotypes, and the population's variation has to do with the frequencies of those genotypes or the alleles that comprise them. So the variation is something that emerges from counting genes. You have heterozygosity (expected frequency of heterozygous genotypes), or number of alleles. At the sequence level, you count both alleles and the number of mutations that separate them -- average pairwise difference, number of segregating sites.

Back to Provine:

Often the standard deviation σ was used for this purpose. But Fisher noted that

Now Provine gives a direct quote from Fisher 1918:

when there are two independent sources of variability capable of producing in an otherwise uniform population distributions with standard deviations σ1 and σ2, it is found that the distribution, when both causes act together, has a standard deviation σ12 + σ22. It is therefore desirable in analysing the causes of variability to deal with the square of the standard deviation as the measure of variability. We shall term this quantity the Variance of the normal population to which it refers, and we may now ascribe to the constituent causes fractions or percentages of the total variance which they together produce (Fisher 1918:399).

I have always thought that this was a work of magic by Fisher. The additive quality of variance is such a useful characteristic for a measure of variation, it's hard to imagine using anything else. Fisher continues:

For stature the coefficient of correlation between brothers is about .54, which we may interpret by saying that 54 per cent of their variance is accounted for by ancestry alone, and that 46 per cent must have some other explanation.

It is not sufficient to ascribe this last residue to the effects of environment. Numerous investigations by Galton and Pearson have shown that all measurable environment has much less effect on such measurements as stature. Further, the facts collected by Galton respecting identical twins show that in this case, where the essential nature is the same, the variance is far less. The simplest hypothesis, and the one which we shall examine, is that such features as stature are determined by a large number of Mendelian factors, and that the large variance among children of the same parents is due to the segregation of those factors in respect to which the parents are heterozygous. Upon this hypothesis we will attempt to determine how much more of the variance, in different measurable features, beyond that which is indicated by the fraternal correlation, is due to innate and heritable factors (Fisher 1918:400).

And that, in a nutshell, is why the correlation between relatives is not a measure of heritability. Fisher attempted to show that the segregation of Mendelian factors could account for a large fraction of the variance of stature, and substantially succeeded in showing that the environment had much less impact than had been assumed from the correlation between relatives.

Provine's discussion continues along a different line, but he includes the characteristic line:

Fisher's 1918 paper was well received by the few geneticists who could understand his mathematics (147).

"Historians Gone Wild" on Oprahbulations

I think that this NY Times story by Noam Cohen, titled "In Douglass Tribute, Slave Folklore and Fact Collide," is just fascinating. It's an old story (from early 2007), but I was pointed to it this morning.

At the northwest corner of Central Park, construction is under way on Frederick Douglass Circle, a $15.5 million project honoring the escaped slave who became a world-renowned orator and abolitionist.

Beneath an eight-foot-tall sculpture of Douglass, the plans call for a huge quilt in granite, an array of squares, a symbol in each, supposedly part of a secret code sewn into family quilts and used along the Underground Railroad to aid slaves. Two plaques would explain this.

The only problem: According to many prominent historians, the secret code — the subject of a popular book that has been featured on no less a cultural touchstone than “The Oprah Winfrey Show” — never existed. And now the city is reconsidering the inclusion of the plaques, so as not to “publicize spurious history,” Kate D. Levin, the city’s commissioner of cultural affairs, said yesterday.

Read the story if you're interested. I really have no opinion, other than to point out that Oprah's programs have often promoted pseudoscience and myths. In this case, the story comes from a 1999 book, Hidden in Plain View. According to Cohen's article, the authors do not currently claim that the secret codes really existed at the time of the Underground Railroad or were widespread; they say that this was one family's story.

What I think is interesting is that the story has developed such a following among educators and otherwise knowledgeable people:

There are currently 207,000 copies in print, she said. The codes are frequently taught in elementary schools (teachers have been eager to take up the quilting-codes theory because of its useful pedagogic elements — a secret code, artwork and a story of triumph), and the patterns represent a small industry within quiltmaking.

I suppose many historians find this maddening -- sure, there's no documentary evidence, a believer would say, because the codes were secret! But then, that's the defense for most conspiracy theories, from UFOs to the Illuminati.

Oprah aired the story along with the Jefferson DNA descendants, in the news at the same time:

On Ms. Winfrey’s show, Dr. Dobard appeared with the black descendants of Thomas Jefferson. That relationship was preserved in oral history across the centuries, even as historians of the past generally dismissed the claim. DNA tests published in 1998 are considered to have confirmed Jefferson’s paternity.

So, Oprah helped make an anthropology link for me to hang the story on. A family story, doubted by the historical establishment, yet proved with DNA. Well, maybe at least -- in the DNA case, there are other paternal Jefferson relatives who might have been the ancestor.

No doubt a good historian could test this hypothesis too. I would look at the question as an opportunity to study a lot of interesting quilts and other folk art. Do a phylogenetic analysis on elements included in early quilts. Few of these will date to the pre-Emancipation period, but if the elements of the story -- a star, zig-zags, monkey-wrenches -- were sufficiently common and co-associated in later quilts, say, from the 1930's, it would be an argument in favor of the widespread existence of the pattern at an earlier time.

New Scientist is running a nice article titled, "1709: The year that Europe froze." It hits many interesting points -- at the very dawn of systematic temperature records, we have consistent recordings of the winter from several observers across Europe. And then there are the descriptions:

In more humble homes, people went to bed and woke to find their nightcaps frozen to the bed-head. Bread froze so hard it took an axe to cut it. According to a canon from Beaune in Burgundy, "travellers died in the countryside, livestock in the stables, wild animals in the woods; nearly all the birds died, wine froze in barrels and public fires were lit to warm the poor". From all over the country came reports of people found frozen to death. And with roads and rivers blocked by snow and ice, it was impossible to transport food to the cities. Paris waited three months for fresh supplies.

It is harrowing to think of just how terrible one bad winter could be for agricultural productivity across the Northern Hemisphere. We have more buffering today than pre-industrial Europe, but an unexpected blockage of sunlight from volcanoes or impacts could happen at any time.

I'm very sad about Andrew Wyeth's death this week. He was one of the first artists I learned about in school, and I have always been inspired by his work.

The linked article (in the NY Times) is good, but in all the press coverage, there has been an over-accentuation of the criticism of critics. I know from experience that Wyeth had a huge influence through young students of art across the country. The family connections through his father, N. C. Wyeth and son Jamie are a compelling story. More important, his realistic style, regional focus and work in tempera make him a very good example for student artists. I believe I first encounted Wyeth's work right after the sale of the Helga paintings made news -- enough to take an artist who was "thororughly respectable" for students and give him that little bit of edge!

I happened to have been reading Wyeth's own remembrance of his father's death this week. After that, it was very spooky for me to hear that Andrew himself had died. I want to pull this quote:

In many of his paintings, the faces have a relaxed, almost deathlike quality that is extraordinary. I once asked about this. Pa said, "Andy, I'll tell you." And he drove his point right home to me: "When my mother died, I took the train right to Needham. I got there in the late afternoon and they had her laid in her bed upstairs. I went up and sat there with her, with that amazing face that looked like the mother of Europe. As the sun went down, studying that face lying there on that white pillow and that waxy skin"—he was almost whispering—"it made such a deep impression on me. Andy, if you ever have a chance to be with someone you have loved, don't hesitate to do it, because that's the most profound quality, a head in death. It changed everything for me."

Andrew Wyeth, 1917-2009.

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Here's a story from earlier this month in New Scientist:

MULTIPLE comet impacts around 1500 years ago triggered a "dry fog" that plunged half the world into famine.

Historical records tell us that from the beginning of March 536 AD, a fog of dust blanketed the atmosphere for 18 months. During this time, "the sun gave no more light than the moon", global temperatures plummeted and crops failed, says Dallas Abbott of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in New York

It seems to me that the ability to find possible impacts has really increased, with finer-resolution cores and ways of finding the microscopic ejecta. Regardless of the scale of effects of any given instance, it will be nice when we can get some idea of the rate of such events through the past several tens of thousands of years.

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A history of cattle breeding by the book?

Ancient DNA technology may make it possible to test some very interesting hypotheses about recent evolutionary change in human populations.

Meanwhile, several people are reporting the potential of DNA from museum specimens for testing hypotheses about ancient or extinct populations. Today's news includes a story introducing the term "museomics" -- otherwise known as the metagenomics of museum specimens, including the DNA of taxidermed specimens and their pathogens and commensal bacterial populations:

[Webb] Miller and his team used state-of-the-art DNA sequencing technology to analyze the hair of two preserved specimens: a female thylacine that died at the London Zoo in 1893, and a male brought to the National Zoo in 1902 that died three years later.

Although the two thylacines were continents apart, their mitochondrial DNA — a portion of the genome passed on via the maternal line — was nearly identical, illustrating the species' ultra-low genetic diversity around the turn of the 20th century.

Brandom Keim of Wired blogs that medieval parchment preserves enough DNA for analysis:

Initial tests showed that the animal skin pages contained enough intact DNA to make analysis worthwhile. So [Tim] Stinson and his brother Mike Stinson, a biologist at Southside Virginia Community College, skin samples taken from five pages of a 15th century French prayer book. Preserved mitochondrial DNA revealed that the pages came from two closely related calves.

Those results, said Stinson, are a proof of principle that it's possible to create a DNA database from manuscripts of known age and origin. Monastic paperwork tended to be dated, so DNA from those works could be cross-indexed with that of literary works from tomes of unknown provenance, producing a taxonomy of manuscript manufacture.

Sourcing manuscripts is pretty exciting to historians, no doubt, who must otherwise rely on indicators such as handwriting style and dialect.

But the results may be equally useful for understanding the processes of animal breeding in medieval Europe. Today's domesticated breeds are a remnant of a much larger diversity of local breeds that once existed. People bred animals both locally by selection and across large regions by introducing favored animals from long distances. Sometimes they favored diversity -- and considering the revival of interest in legacy breeds like Highland cattle.

As an example, today's European swine include a blend of genes from ancient European domesticates, and hogs introduced from China during the 18th and 19th centuries (Giuffra et al. 2000). That introgression probably caused some substantial improvements in the hog population, but has helped to reduce genetic variation and move the population from its medieval structure to a more homogenized gene pool.

Gregory Cochran and I gave a short description of the history of cattle domestication and ongoing gene flow in our 2006 paper about introgression (Hawks and Cochran 2006). With four original cattle species in different parts of Eurasia, and the possibility of continued gene flow among imported breeds as well as the original progenitor species of European cattle, the aurochs (still known in early medieval times), the population history of European breeds may harbor a lot of complexity during the last 1000 years. Finding the medieval distribution of today's genes -- even if the only result is a mitochondrial DNA distribution -- might help us understand the distribution in which favored traits originated and were selected.

References:

Giuffra E, Kijas JMH, Amarger V, Carlborg Ö, Jeon J-T, Andersson L. 2000. The origin of the domestic pig: Independent domestication and subsequent introgression. Genetics 154:1785-1791.

Hawks J, Cochran G. 2006. Dynamics of adaptive introgression from archaic to modern humans. PaleoAnthropology 2006:101-115.

I happened to be reading about the scholastic revival of Cicero, in the book Ad Infinitum: A Biography of Latin by Nicholas Ostler. It's a really interesting book and I'll be reviewing it here later.

Meanwhile, I saw this story come across the tubes:

The good news is that Philip Kay knows how the Romans got themselves into financial bother. The bad news is no one knows how they got themselves out of it.

...

The monetary historian is giving a lecture today in which he will reveal how Cicero, the Roman orator, gave a speech in 66BC in which he alluded to the credit crunch. Cicero was arguing that Pompey the Great should be given military command against Mithridates VI, king of Pontus on the Black sea coast of what is now Turkey. He reminded his audience of events in 88BC, when the same Mithridates invaded the Roman province of Asia, on the western coast of Turkey. Cicero claimed the invasion caused the loss of so much Roman money that credit was destroyed in Rome itself.

The orator told his audience: "Defend the republic from this danger and believe me when I tell you - what you see for yourselves - that this system of monies, which operates at Rome in the Forum, is bound up in, and is linked with, those Asian monies; the loss of one inevitably undermines the other and causes its collapse."

So, don't despair. The glorious days of empire may still be before us!

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Hail, great Copernithal!

OK, so they've identified the body of Copernicus.

So, in the next stage, Swedish genetics expert Marie Allen analyzed DNA from a vertebrae, a tooth and femur bone and matched and compared it to that taken from two hairs retrieved from a book that the 16th-century Polish astronomer owned, which is kept at a library of Sweden's Uppsala University where Allen works.

"We collected four hairs and two of them are from the same individual as the bones," Allen said.

Which sort of makes you wonder about the other two hairs...

Anyway, naturally if we're going to start cloning extinct creatures, naturally we'll want to recreate the League of Extraordinary Scientists. Now, I don't know if Copernicus is going to be up to your standards; maybe you go for Newton, Einstein and Galileo first. But maybe if you want additional reinforcement that we aren't the center of the universe, you might build your Neandertal clone using a Copernican template. Although "Copernithal" sounds kind of like a pharmaceutical product of some kind.

Mickey Kaus' twisted take on what history dooms us to:

[T]hose who don't ignore history are condemned to think it will be repeated.

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From the introduction of G. G. Simpson, 1943, Tempo and Mode in Evolution, p. xv:

The attempted synthesis of paleontology and genetics, an essential part of the present study, may be particularly surprising and possibly hazardous. Not long ago paleontologists felt that a geneticist was a person who shut himself in a room, pulled down the shades, watched small flies disporting themselves in milk bottles, and thought that he was studying nature. A pursuit so removed from the realities of life, they said, had no significance for the true biologist. On the other hand, the geneticists said that paleontology had no further contributions to make to biology, that its only point had been the completed demonstration of the truth of evolution, and that it was a subject too purely descriptive to merit the name "science." The paleontologist, they believed, is like a man who undertakes to study the principles of the internal combustion engine by standing on a street corner and watching the motor cars whiz by.

Now paleontologists and geneticists are learning tolerance for each other, if not understanding. As a paleontologist, I confess to inadequate knowledge of genetics, and I have not met a geneticist who has demonstrated much grasp of my subject; but at least we have come to realize that we do have problems in common and to hope that difficulties encountered in each separate type of research may be resolved or alleviated by the discoveries of the other.

Billiard-ball genetics

I picked up a copy of Julian Huxley's Evolution: The Modern Synthesis this week at a book sale. It's funny -- the book was a review copy and bears the following bookplate:

To The Literary Editor:

Direct quotation in reviews is limited to 500 words or less unless special permission is given.

Well, I hope that the statute of limitations on the bookplate has passed, because I'm going to quote a lot more than 500 words out of this over the next few weeks.

I'll start with a passage from the first chapter. It brings to mind Mayr's famous comment about "bean bag genetics," but I find Huxley's approach at once more sympathetic and insightful about the nature of inheritance opposed to the way scientists describe inheritance:

In the early days of Mendelian research, phrases such as "in fowls, the character rose-comb is inherited as a Mendelian dominant" were current. So long as such phrases are recognized as mere convenient shorthand, they are harmless; but when they are taken to imply the actual genetic transmission of the characters, they are wholly incorrect.

Even as shorthand, they may mislead. To say that rose-comb is inherited as a dominant, even if we know that we mean the genetic factor for rose-comb, is likely to lead to what I may call the one-to-one or billiard-ball view of genetics. There are assumed to be a large number of characters in the organism, each one represented in a more or less invariable way by a particular factor or gene, or a combination of a few factors. This crude particulate view is a mere restatement of the preformation theory of development: granted the rose-comb factor, the rose-comb character, nice and clear-cut, will always appear. The rose-comb factor, it is true, is not regarded as a sub-microscopic replica of the actual rose-comb, but is taken to represent it by some form of unanalysed but inevitable correspondence.

The fallacy in this view is again revealed by the use of the difference method. In asserting that rose-comb is a dominant character, we are merely stating in a too abbreviated form the results of experiments to determine what constitutes the difference between fowls with rose-combs and fowls with single combs. In reality what is inherited as a Mendelian dominant is the gene in the rose-combed stock which differentiates it from the single-combed stock: we have no right to assert anything more as a result of our experiments than the existence of such a differential factor (Huxley 1943:19).

I try to emphasize this point whenever I introduce genetics: we know about inheritance because of our observations on organisms, not because we have traced the molecular effects of every gene. As when we interpret sounds into language, we depend on contrasts to see the effects of alleles. I am always amazed when we learn something new about these molecular mechanisms underlying observable phenotypes, because they manifest in so many different ways.

P. S. Yes, after all that, you deserve a picture of a rose-comb. But although Flickr has many, all are copyrighted, none Creative Commons. So, I won't republish, but here's a link to my favorite.

Something fishy about this Pompeii story

This is one doofy story:

Remains of rotten fish entrails have helped establish the precise dating of Pompeii's destruction, according to Italian researchers who have analyzed the town's last batch of garum, a pungent, fish-based seasoning.

OK, so far so good. But wait a minute! We have a perfectly good historical date from Pliny the Younger! August 24, 79 AD. There's not any chance that some kind of radiometric date is going to improve on that. So what's the deal?

Doubts about the date of the eruption emerged a couple of years ago when archaeologists discovered a coin which seemed to refer to the 15th imperiatorial acclamation of Titus, believed to have occurred on Sept. 7, 79 A.D.

OK, so the coin supposedly was later than the eruption, even though it was in the site. But wouldn't the simple explanation be that they struck the coins in advance of the event? Well, I guess there's also this:

"Unfortunately, that coin can't be taken as a dating evidence, since it is hardly readable. I myself agree with Ciarallo's dating of the eruption, even though I think that a bit of mystery remains. However, it is not so important whether the eruption occurred in August or in October," Teresa Giove, a coin expert at Naples' Archaeological Museum, told Discovery News.

So where does the fish sauce fit in?

"Pompeii's last batch of garum [fish sauce] was made with bougues, a fish that was cheap and easy to find on the market in those summer months. Still today, people living in this region make a modern version of garum, called "colatura di alici" or anchovy juice, in July when this fish abounds on the markets," Ciarallo said.

The eruption froze the sauce right at the moment when the fish was left to macerate. No batches of finished garum were found, since the liquid evaporated in the heat from the eruption.

"Since bogues abounded in July and early August and ancient Roman recipes recommend leaving the fish to macerate for no longer than a month, we can say that the eruption occurred in late August-early September, a date which is totally compatible with Pliny's account," Ciarallo said.

OK, so they don't keep the sauce macerating for more than a month. And September 7 is...less than a month after early August. Uhh...what was the story here? Why were we doubting Pliny again? I mean, I admire the knowledge that goes into this, and it's pretty cool to analyze ancient fish sauce, but this story just wasted my time!

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Book review: The Murder of Nikolai Vavilov, by Peter Pringle

Until this summer, I had only a vague idea of who Nikolai Vavilov was. I knew he had been Dobzhansky's mentor, and that like all Russian biologists, he had suffered at the hands of Lysenko. Otherwise, I had heard of Vavilov only in connection to an obscure quote from the introduction of Maynard Smith's Evolution and the Theory of Games:

Suppose for example, that only two kinds of wings could ever develop -- rectangular and triangular. Natural selection would probably favor the former in vultures and the latter in falcons. But if one asked 'Why are birds' wings the shapes they are?', the answer would have to be couched primarily in terms of developmental constraints. If, on the other hand, almost any shape of wing can develop, then the actual shape, down to its finest details, may be explicable in selective terms.

Biologists differ about which of these pictures is nearer the truth. My own position is intermediate. Clearly, not all variations are equally likely for a given species. This fact was well understood by Darwin, and was familiar to me when I was an undergraduate under the term 'Vavilov's law of homologous variation' (Maynard Smith 1982:7).

Well, so much the more for mystery. A historical footnote to be remembered in an argument with Stephen Jay Gould. So I filed it in the back of my mind, since this kind of developmental constraint hypothesis has become more and more important in human evolution during the past few years. It turns out that the traits that differentiate some hominid species are in many cases the same traits that have the most variation within species.

Anyway, it was enough to get my interest when Peter Pringle's new book, The Murder of Nikolai Vavilov, showed up in the local bookstore.

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This New Scientist story is from January, but it's interesting -- streams and rivers across the eastern US were much more extensively terraformed by damming than ever thought:

Their analysis revealed that by 1840, there were more than 65,000 dams between South Carolina and Maine.

This revises the idea that the modern farming and damming practices are entirely responsible for certain observations:

"After every rainstorm, our creeks and streams run like chocolate milk," says Walter. The belief has been that the mud is dragged off eroded farmland and rushed down streams that were straightened and inflated by industrialisation.

But, Walter and Merritts say the sediment does not come from modern farms, but from those that capped the hills 300 years ago. Today, that mud still lines the ponds and streams, and every new storm simply dislodges it and moves it further downstream.

(via Jerry Pournelle)

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The immune system's long memory:

Scientists tested the blood of 32 people aged 92 to 102 who were exposed to the 1918 pandemic flu and found antibodies that still roam the body looking to strangle the old flu strain. Researchers manipulated those antibodies into a vaccine and found that it kept alive all the mice they had injected with the killer flu, according to a study published online Sunday in the journal Nature.

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