john hawks weblog

paleoanthropology, genetics and evolution

Omo

  • The Orrorin identity

    Fri, 2008-03-21 09:55 -- John Hawks

    There's nothing especially surprising about the functional interpretations in Richmond and Jungers' paper about the Orrorin BAR 1002'00 femur. They conclude it was an australopithecine-like biped, because it shared several features with australopithecine femora: in particular, it has a long, narrow, anteroposteriorly flattened neck and a broad thick proximal shaft.

    In this, they mirror the conclusions of the original description of the Lukeino fossils by Senut et al. (2001). Richmond and Jungers also reiterate the evidence for arboreality in the Lukeino fossils, including the well-developed musculature of the distal humerus and the chimpanzee-like curved finger bone. I wonder why their analysis could not have made something more out of the other two femoral fragments, one of which is fairly large (but lacking the head). Still, the paper reiterates the quite good evidence for bipedality in the most complete femoral specimen.

    I wonder sometimes how closely people actually read the papers they comment on. The associated coverage, including Ann Gibbons' article, has made a lot out of a small point in the paper, but I think that the commenters have it wrong.

    Here's the story: When the Orrorin materials were first published, Brigitte Senut and Martin Pickford put forward the argument that these may be more closely related to Homo than to known australopithecines. They based their argument mainly on Orrorin's relatively thick-enameled molars, which they viewed as different from the thin-enameled molars of Ardipithecus, but lacking the enlarged dentition of Australopithecus. So, they suggested that Orrorin might be a plesiomorphic ancestor of Homo, and that Ardipithecus and Australopithecus represent divergent lineages derived in their dental anatomy.

    I don't find that suggestion very compelling, because it seems to put too much faith in the absence of evolutionary reversals. There's no reason why a large-molared australopithecine should not have given rise to small-molared Homo, particularly since smaller-toothed Homo habilis is apparently derived from earlier, larger-toothed "Homo" specimens like A. L. 666-1 and Omo 75-14. And Haile-Selassie, Suwa and White (2004) claimed that the Orrorin, Sahelanthropus, and Ardipithecus dentitions were so similar that they might represent one taxon. So the dental contrasts among these early hominids are probably not great enough to justify the idea that Orrorin is an exclusive Homo ancestor.

    The femur also formed a part of this phylogenetic story, with Senut and Pickford having noted the lack of extreme australopithecine-like features in the femur. The Orrorin femur has a less exaggerated neck length than many australopithecine specimens, it is larger than many, and appears to have a higher neck-shaft angle. To the extent those features differ from later Australopithecus, they resemble the human anatomy.

    Richmond and Jungers address this argument very briefly in their last paragraph, by noting that the functional elements of the Orrorin femoral anatomy are entirely consistent with the australopithecine pattern of bipedality:

    The similarity between O. tugenensis and australopith femora weakens support for scenarios in which O. tugenesis is ancestral to Homo to the exclusion of A. afarensis (4). Instead, the overall primitive hominin morphology of the O. tugenensis femur, along with primitive dental anatomy, is consistent with the more parsimonious hypothesis that it is a basal member of the hominin clade.

    I think that's fair, as far as it goes. The overall morphological pattern of this femur, with its long neck and broad shaft, is much like known australopithecine femora. But to go a bit further, their metric comparisons show BAR 1002'00 to be the most Homo-like of the early hominid femora they examined, and their phenetic cluster puts it basal to the other australopithecines. That's pretty much exactly what Senut et al. have consistently said. So I have a hard time understanding how those observations refute the idea that Orrorin has a more Homo-like femur than later australopithecines!

    Again, I don't put much stock in the phylogenetic argument for an Orrorin-Homo link. I don't see any difficulty deriving Homo from Australopithecus, especially given the likely effects of body size evolution on the locomotor pattern. And at least one or two early Homo femoral specimens, like KNM-ER 1481, share most of the Australopithecus-like pattern of proximal femur anatomy. But this paper surely doesn't add anything new to the critique of Senut and Pickford's preferred phylogenetic hypothesis. The details simply don't detract from their story.

    References:

    Richmond BG, Jungers WL. 2008. Orrorin tugenensis femoral morphology and the evolution of hominin bipedalism. Science 319:1662-1665. doi:10.1126/science.1154197

    Gibbons A. 2008. Millennium ancestor gets its walking papers. Science 319:1599-1601. doi:10.1126/science.319.5870.1599

    Haile-Selassie Y, Suwa G, White T. 2004. Late Miocene teeth from Middle Awash, Ethiopia, and early hominid dental evolution. Science 303:1503-1505.

    Senut B, Pickford M, Gommery D, Mein P, Cheboi K, Coppens Y. 2001. First hominid from the Miocene (Lukeino Formation, Kenya). C R Acad Sci Paris, Sciences de la Terre et des planètes 332:137-144.

    Synopsis: 
    A paper by Richmond and Jungers (2008) argues for functional bipedality in the Orrorin femora.
  • An interview with Michelle Drapeau

    Sat, 2008-01-12 20:17 -- John Hawks

    I've been trying to spread the interviews across the field in various directions. I (virtually) talked with Mica Glantz about Neandertals, Adam Van Arsdale about early Homo, and Anne Weaver about human brain evolution, all the australopithephiles in the readership are probably feeling neglected.

    So I wrote to Michelle Drapeau, who was very generous in answering questions about her work on the anatomy of early hominids and her recent field work in Ethiopia. Michelle is on the faculty of the Université de Montréal, in the Department of Anthropology. She serves as co-director of field operations in the Bala Paleoanthropological Research Area of southern Ethiopia.

    Hawks: I will start out by asking about your dissertation work, which centered on the new partial skeleton from Hadar, A.L. 438-1. How did you get involved in that analysis?

    Drapeau: It's a case of being at the right place at the right time. Bill Kimbel and Don Johanson had asked my advisor at the time, Carol Ward, to describe all the postcranial material recovered from the field in Hadar since 1990. Among those specimens was the partial skeleton of A.L. 438-1 which included associated fragments of the humerus, clavicle, radius, right ulna, mandible, and frontal as well as a complete left ulna, right and left second metacarpals and left third metacarpal. Considering the relatively numerous body parts from one individual, Carol thought the specimen deserved a more detailed analysis. I was Carol's Ph.D. student at the time and the 438-skeleton (as we started to call it) appeared like an ideal subject.

    Hawks: What did you have to learn to be able to undertake the work?

    Drapeau: I had to learn a lot! My master's thesis was in the history of science field, so all the functional anatomy, including the descriptive and comparative aspects were completely new to me. It was something I really wanted to do, however, so I really enjoyed immersing myself into it.

    Hawks: A.L. 438-1 exhibits more curvature across its length than A.L. 288-1, an issue that you discussed in your analysis of the fossil. I have always been puzzled by the problem of ulna curvature -- mainly because I've always been puzzled by the comparison of later, larger, and more curved fossils like Omo L40-19 and OH 36 -- and then, of course, KNM-WT 15000 is a lot more like most recent humans. Do you have any insights about these contrasting morphologies?

    Drapeau: Forearm bone curvature is an intriguing issue. Intuitively, it makes sense to assume that curvature reflects arboreality since the curvature of both the ulna and radius give greater area on the interosseous membrane for attachment of forearm muscle important for arboreal locomotion such as the finger flexors. However, orangutans and gibbons do not have the most curved forearm bones. It is an honor that goes to gorillas, definitely not the most arboreal animal of the bunch. If the area of muscle attachment is the variable that interests us, then it is important to take into account forearm length as well. When that is done, species generally sort by locomotor preference, with the most arboreal having the greater ‘area' for muscle attachment relative to body size and humans having the smallest (at least, when measured on the ulna). So gorillas appear to have very curved forearm bones because they also have relatively short forearms when compared to other apes.

    The differences between A.L. 438-1 and A.L. 288-1 are fairly minor and probably reflect normal within-species variation. Neither is very curved and they may belong to a population with slightly more curved ulnae than modern humans but definitely less curved than any extant apes.

    The KNM-WT 15000 specimen is pretty much what you would expect an ulna belonging to a completely terrestrial biped to look like, i.e., it is not particularly curved. Since it is a juvenile, it is difficult to compare it to other fossils, but there is nothing really surprising about it.

    That said, what about the intriguing Omo L40-19 and OH 36? These specimens present combination of morphologies that are difficult to underscore in quantitative analyses. The former had a human-like proximal morphology but a really long and curved (ape-like) diaphysis. The latter, OH 36, has a general ape-like morphology with a pronounced curvature, but is unique in a few characters. The whole bone (proximal articulation and diaphysis) is very constricted medio-laterally, more comparable what is observed in monkeys (and it is not the result of distorsion). Despite its general ape-like morphology, it has an olecranon process that projects proximally like no other ape of its size. It is definitely much more human-like for that trait and it is generally agreed that it is a hominin. McHenry and colleagues argue in a recent article (AJPA, 134: 209-218) that these two fossils are very different and can hardly be accommodated into the same genus (Paranthropus) as it is usually done (probably by default). McHenry and colleagues argue that it may indicate Paranthropus is in fact a polyphyletic taxon. They also conclude, as I stated above, that OH 36 is unlike anything living today.

    So, if curvature of the ulna reflects arboreality, does it mean that these fairly recent fossils were much more arboreal than A. afarensis? Remember that they are big ulnae, particularly L40-19, likely belonging to large individuals.... Maybe the Paranthropus clade (if indeed it is a clade) is more arboreal than A. afarensis? This would imply either reversal of behavior or that A. afarensis is not ancestral to Paranthropus. Or, alternatively, could the curvature in these individuals reflect forelimb muscularity but not necessarily related to arboreality? As you can see, I have many more questions than answers. All this variability suggests that the behaviors of fossil hominin species were much more variable than what we have been used to think and may have been (very?) different from the behaviors of extent species.

    Hawks: Of course, the big debate about forelimb proportions is the idea that they may have been very different (and more apelike) in A. africanus compared to A. afarensis. (reviewed by Green, Gordon, and Richmond 2007) What do you think about the issue?

    Drapeau: That idea first met with some resistance because it involved a reversal of proportions from A. afarensis to A. africanus and implied a more arboreal behavior in the latter than the former. Given that Homo habilis is often described has having more ape-like proportions than A. afarensis, it also implied that A. afarensis may not be the ancestor of the Homo lineage (an idea more recently suggested by Yoel Rak and colleagues based on mandibular data). Since I remain unconvinced of the primitive proportion of H. habilis, I am not so certain that the 'derived' proportions of A. afarensis exclude it from being an ancestor to the Homo lineage.

    Back to the differences between the two australopithecine species. Despite original skepticism, the data appears to be robust and the differences in joint size between A. afarensis and A. africanus appear to be real. As observed in the previous question, this variability may reflect locomotor differences possibly related to differences in the environment. If A. afarensis was still occasionally arboreal, is it too hard to imagine that, if the environment is changed (more wooded, greater predator pressure, more resources found in trees, etc.), the percentage of arboreal behavior would increase and that the proportions would revert to being more chimp-like in A. africanus? Again, there is no reason to assume that all early hominins, because they were bipedal, were identical in their locomotor behaviors.

    I want to underscore that these differences are in joint SIZE, not in limb length, and reflect relative loading of the limbs. Usually, the major source of loading of the limbs is related to locomotion, but it is an assumption that cannot be verified in early hominins. If, as stated above, OH 36 is unlike anything living today, maybe it did things that have no modern equivalent. And the same can be said of other hominin species including A. africanus with its 'apparent' primitive proportions.

    Hawks: You have recently been involved in field research in the Bala-Weyto region of southern Ethiopia. Can you describe the site, and your role?

    Drapeau: The Bala–Weyto basin is part of a series of small parallel rifts that link the northern limit of the East African Rift to the southern limit of the Main Ethiopian rift. These small rifts constitute today a string of many small basins. The Bala-Weyto basin is located east of the Omo river basin. It is a region more difficult to survey when compared to dryer region because of the vegetation coverage that limits exposures visibility and access. However, it is little-explored paleoanthropologically speaking. Work in the Konso, another small basin a few kilometers away, but at a higher altitude, has a fauna with a certain degree of endemism and an A. (P.) boisei specimen with unique morphological variations. Among other things, we want to know if this variation and the faunal endemism are due to the relative isolation of the basin or to its particular environment. These answers may be found in contiguous basins that vary in their physical characteristics, such as the Bala-Weyto basin.

    I am co-director of that project with Elizabeth Harmon of the City University of New York. At this stage of the project, being co-director involves organizing the whole expedition, securing funding, and coordinating the work of other team members. I would say that the most time consuming aspect is coming up with money and getting everything moving in the field. As a director, I am responsible for the team's well-being and it is a pressure that can sometimes weigh heavily on my shoulders. It is nice to be able to share the burden with a co-director.

    Hawks: Do you involve students in your work?

    Drapeau: My funding is limited and field work in Ethiopia is not particularly cheap. However, I plan to bring one student in the field this summer. I look forward to share this experience with a highly motivated student!

    Hawks: Many of us have heard about the difficulties of field research, particularly in East Africa. What are some of your biggest challenges?

    Drapeau: Doing field work in Ethiopia can be a challenge for many reasons. As can be expected, there are numerous permissions, letters, official documents, etc., that are required and the bureaucracy is somewhat heavy. However, I find Ethiopians very helpful and professional and, usually, the quest for documents goes smoothly, particularly once you know what to do and in what order.

    A second difficulty is the access to the sites. Ethiopia did not have one highway until relatively recently and road traveling remains an experience that can be frightening. A lot of work is being done on the roads, however, and I believe that things will keep improving. Access to the research area involves off-road traveling as well, with all the difficulties that it entails. When you leave for the field, you have to be a self-sufficient unit, relying on the local environment as little as possible. It is still necessary to get gasoline on a regular basis, but except that, we try to be as autonomous as possible. It is particularly important when you go to a new area and don't know what (if anything) will be available to you.

    A third aspect of field work, particularly in Ethiopia, is the politics, the paleoanthropological politics that is. Although most scientists are polite and civilized to each other, I really feel that we had to walk on eggs when we were researching an area in which to conduct field work.

    A final difficulty (and certainly not the least) in our situation, is to find an area that has fossiliferous exposures of a time period that interests us and in which we can work at least a few years. The numerous discoveries that are made in East Africa give the impression that finding hominin fossils is something easy to do, but it usually involves many years of surveying. We are still at the exploratory phase of our project, i.e., we are still actively looking for an area that could sustain scientific work for a few years. Hard work (and perhaps a little luck) is essential.

    Hawks: You had a lot of field experience before going to Ethiopia. How did you get your start?

    Drapeau: At the end of my undergraduate degree, I had the chance of getting a couple of paying jobs in prehistoric archaeology. It was the beginning of a series of jobs in field archaeology conducted in parallel to my studies. I used to think (and still do) that these were the best summer jobs an anthropology student could have. The pay check was very descent and it usually came with room and board. These jobs allowed me to see many regions of Quebec and Canada that I would otherwise have never visited and to do things I would probably have never done otherwise. I have flown in helicopters for hours (and even survived a major crash), piloted a hydroplane (just for a few minutes, but still!), hear wolves howl into the night while trying to sleep in a tent hundreds of miles from any road or civilization, dipped my foot in the arctic ocean (too chicken to swim), seen the midnight sun, and I could go on. This fieldwork experience, and a stint in the Caune de l'Arago in Tautavel, France, opened another door: to be invited to do field work in Hadar in 2000.

    Hawks: Any interesting stories?

    Drapeau: I have an anecdote that I find amusing, but mostly informative on the nature of humans. When we were doing field work in the Bala basin, our camp was set up about a 2-hour drive off the road. It was clear that the local people had seen very few foreign workers. For the whole time we were there, we had a constant group of people just sitting in the shade observing us like zoo animals, watching our every move, laughing when we did things unexpected, etc. We were quite the entertainment. The occupation of the local Mali people appeared to be tending their few sorghum fields, but mostly to take their sometime large herds of cows, goats and sheep a few miles down to the river for a drink every day. Even though it was not that hot, the men walk around wearing only colorful underwear (the Speedo-type) and it was sometimes literally falling apart. From our western perspective, they really seem to have almost nothing. Anyhow, after a few days in the field, some crew members were starting to crave fresh meat. We agreed to allow the cook to purchase one goat from a local herder. We didn't think it would be a problem given the large quantities of these animals around and our willingness to pay a fair price for it. It came as quite a surprise that no one was willing to sell us any! It turned out that goats, sheep and cows were not herded to be eaten or even milked, but were really just status items. One man from the village nearby apparently owned more than a hundred head of livestock but was still unwilling to sell. We were all quite shocked of the apparent frivolity of it all, particularly considering that food (for humans and beasts) did not appear to be particularly abundant in the region. But then, we couldn't miss seeing the connection to what we can observe in the western world: huge houses for one or two people, oversized and overpriced cars. These are just to show off. The same frivolities, although expressed slightly differently, can be found anywhere. I guess it really is in the human nature. We were finally able to convince someone to sell us a goat, but we paid a really high price.

    Hawks: Congratulations! You seem to be a very busy person right now, both professionally and personally. What's next for you?

    Drapeau: I just started one of the most challenging projects of my life, a project that will keep me busy for the rest of my life. His name is Henri and he is almost 8 months old. Professionally speaking, I am investigating manipulatory adaptations in the early hominin hands and the morphology of muscle markings. However, one of my main objectives in the next two years is to settle on a specific field research area with good scientific potential.

  • Maybe Chinese fire drills explain the date discrepancies

    Tue, 2007-11-06 23:12 -- John Hawks

    I noticed that the cover of the most recent New Scientist is a story about modern human origins by science writer Dan Jones. It's headlined, "Going global: how humans conquered the world."

    I think Jones has done a nice piece of work here -- at 2700 words, the story is easy to read, and it illuminates a certain kind of current consensus. It touches on everything from the Herto hominids, to the Blombos The underlying theme is the idea of a "coastal route" dispersal of modern humans from Africa, coupled with some detail about Paul Mellars' Afro-Indian connection, Spencer Wells' Y-chromosome story, the early Herto and Omo Kibish remains, the relevance of Oase and Tianyuan to early dispersal scenarios, and the "megadroughts" of the African Late Pleistocene.

    I'll tell you one thing: The piece succeeds at making me feel like a member of the Neandertal Underground, standing on the side of the road as the march of the "Human Revolution" goes by.

    The thing is that none of these separate elements fit together. It's not hard to figure that tracing the Y chromosome genealogy of Eurasia to a divergence in the Middle East 40,000 years ago doesn't match up very well with the idea of an "early coastal route dispersal" 60,000 years ago, or an initial colonization of Australia 50,000 years ago. Placing "modern human anatomy" earlier and earlier in time -- back to 200,000 years ago -- isn't exactly helping to explain the behavioral record in the last 70,000 years. And the archaeology that places "modern human behavior" increasingly into the Middle Stone Age doesn't explain why the same behaviors should be found in Neandertals.

    Sometimes the contradictions are so glaring that Jones almost can't help but juxtapose them:

    "The similarities between Africa and India are not coincidental, and fit in beautifully with the DNA evidence," says Paul Mellars, an archaeologist at the University of Oxford. Although none of these artefacts is more than 35,000 years old, that may simply reflect the fact that sea levels are about 100 metres higher today than they were 50,000 years ago. Any artefacts or bones left by the first coastal migrants are now buried beneath the sea.

    I never credit someone with quotes taken from a news article -- every nuance of the evidence is simply not that important to the casual reader. But it's sort of obvious that some of the DNA evidence poses a problem here. And the dates are entirely discordant.

    Mellars has emphasized in print (e.g., 2006) the material similarities between early Upper Paleolithic assemblages of India and the Howieson's Poort industry of Africa. The similarities are there, but the dates are quite different. "Lower sea levels" is only arm-waving: Sure, the lack of earlier evidence of similar industries is a problem, but a much bigger problem is explaining the 40,000-year persistence of these "similar" industries in the constant adjacent presence of other patterns of material culture.

    The obvious alternative is that the similarities are coincidental -- or at least don't reflect a lineal cultural relationship between 70,000-year-old Africans and 30,000-year-old Indians. That doesn't argue against dispersal: after all, the abilities represented by the material remains may have dispersed, early or late, even if the tools themselves didn't.

    But we should also consider the similarities with the cultural remains of late Neandertals and even earlier peoples of Europe, including the pigment use, engraved lines, pendant drilling and blade manufacture.

    What we have here is a clown car of a hypothesis: everything thrown in but the bearded lady. No hypothesis is ever tested: Consistency rules. This is no discredit on Jones at all, who clearly does the best job possible of fitting together all these recent papers. The problem is that when you see them all next to each other, you can't help but see that these 115,000-year-old Eritrean shellfish, 40,000-year-old Y chromosome divergences, 65,000-year-old mitochondrial haplogroups, 30,000-year-old Indian blades, 35,000-year-old Romanian skeletons, 70,000-year-old ochre engravings, and 190,000-year-old African skulls really can't fit together to tell a story of a single human dispersal at a single time.

    Either the hypothesis is wrong, or some of the data are. Or both.

    References:

    Jones D. 2007. Going global: how humans spread across the world. New Scientist, Oct. 27, 36-40.

    Mellars P. 2006. Going east: new genetic and archaeological perspectives on the modern human colonization of Eurasia. Science 313:796-800. doi:10.1126/science.1128402

  • Is a lack of fossils the problem with early Homo?

    Sat, 2007-09-22 22:55 -- John Hawks

    Just noticing, in this John Noble Wilford article:

    A new report, to be published Thursday in Nature, will review more skeletal evidence of the transitional aspects of the Dmanisi specimens.

    More later...

    UPDATE(2007/09/18): Wilford doesn't directly state the article's theme but it clearly has one: Why the heck can't these people agree about these fossils that have been out of the ground for thirty years?

    The first answer that everyone has given him is about the "million year gap" between 3 million and 2 million years ago. People can't agree about early Homo because they can't decide what its ancestors looked like. Without any ancestors, they don't know which of the traits of early Homo are derived.

    For a good example, we can turn to a feature Wilford doesn't mention: limb proportions. Recently, a lot of ink has been spilled discussing the evolution of arm size in later australopithecines and early Homo. OH 62 (probably Homo habilis) and A. africanus have been argued to have large arms compared to their legs. A. afarensis and Nariokotome (KNM-WT 15000, probably Homo erectus) have relatively small arms compared to their legs. Did H. habilis and H. erectus have different ancestors? Did H. erectus evolve from H. habilis, reverting its limb proportions to earlier A. afarensis? Or are all these comparisons just batty, since only three specimens have arm and leg elements whose length can be compared? There's no clear answer; but one of the most important specimens in the question (with sort-of-intermediate limb proportions) is the Bouri skeleton, BOU-VP 12/1, which at 2.5 million years old is right in the middle of that "gap."

    The more you look at the "gap," the less gap-like it looks. For one thing, we have a pretty good idea of what was going on behaviorally during that million year span. The first stone tools are 2.6 million years old. The technology of these toolmakers -- although simple -- included all the basic manufacturing methods used before 1.5 million years ago. The tools were used to butcher animals and break bones for marrow; so we know that the toolmakers were depending on meat.

    Second, we actually have quite a lot of fossils from this time period. The entire South African A. africanus fossil record, with the exception of a few early specimens like STW 573, come from this "gap." A fairly extensive record of the appearance and evolution of early robust australopithecines comes from this time period in East Africa.

    And, here and there, a few specimens look Homo-like. Wilford's article discusses AL 666-1. To this we can add the Uraha mandible, Omo 75-14, an additional series of teeth from Omo, and possibly the Bouri BOU-VP 35/1 skeleton.

    Properly considered, the rarity of early Homo in these contexts is not a problem; it is information. Wilford quotes Philip Rightmire to this effect, and we can easily expand on the basic concept. Early toolmakers did not undergo an immediate geographic expansion upon their origin. They spread across a relatively narrow strip of East Africa and stayed there for more than a half-million years. They were initially rare. That means that their adaptation was not immediately a barnburner of a success -- the early toolmakers took a while to perfect the adaptation of later Homo.

    The middle part of the article takes in another reason for disagreement: whether H. habilis and H. erectus were ancestor-descendant:

    Several scientists, notably Dr. White of Berkeley, took issue with the interpretation seeming to imply that evidence for the two species overlapping in time and exhibiting variable sizes was new. That, he said, had been recognized for a couple of decades.

    Dr. Kimbel, who was not involved in the new research, defended the authors, saying that they had not "meant to imply that habilis could not have been ancestral to erectus, presumably on the basis of their being contemporaneous at Turkana," the site in Kenya where the fossils were found.

    Susan C. Anton, an anthropologist at New York University who was a member of the Spoor-Leakey team, said, "My money is still on habilis as the potential ancestor, but there is a lot of room for additional knowledge, given the dearth of fossils."

    None of these statements really disagree with each other. If anything, this particular question may have gotten easier to resolve lately, not as a consequence of new fossils, but as a result of new dates for many of the old ones. Susan Anton is later quoted saying that anagenesis "is the only option that is no longer on the table," and it seems to me that this is the clearest statement most likely to invite some hypothesis testing. But it is fairly clear that this problem cannot be resolved in terms of earlier fossils: I don't think there's any compelling evidence of H. erectus before 1.6 million years ago.

    There is one significant word that doesn't appear in the article -- an absence that is especially interesting considering the quoted scientists:

    Kenyanthropus

    Remember, the dominant theme is about complexity and bushiness. And yet, here's that forgotten branch of the family tree; the one that was supposed to clarify everything by providing a different ancestor for KNM-ER 1470 from other H. habilis specimens, the one that showed a distinct line leading to Homo originating in the Early Pliocene.

    I think our bush may have been pruned.

  • BROADLY CONSISTENT WATCH I

    Fri, 2005-09-23 00:12 -- John Hawks

    I'm starting a new tradition here, the "Broadly Consistent Watch." If you see that headline, you can be sure I'll be noting an abuse of the term "broadly consistent" --- indeed, in most cases, I'll be pointing out the use of the term for things that are actually not consistent at all.

    Here's the first edition, from Kivisild et al. (2005:10) (also discussed in a previous post):

    The coalescent date of the human mitochondrial DNA tree using this rate is 160,000 (S.D. 22,000) years. This coalescent date is broadly consistent with the dates of the Homo sapiens fossils recognized so far from Ethiopia (CLARK et al. 2003; MCDOUGALL et al. 2005; WHITE et al. 2003).

    This is an excellent example of the au courant use of the term. Here, the paper shows its familiarity with the recent literature on fossil hominids, correctly citing the recent Omo Kibish dates and Herto fossils. And indeed the Herto fossils are dated to between 154,000 and 160,000 years ago, and the Omo Kibish hominids between 190,000 and 200,000 years, so these "early modern" humans do appear to be "broadly consistent" with the mtDNA coalescence estimate.

    But that's the beauty of "broadly consistent": it can apply to anything within a ballpark or two (or four), especially if (a) you're talking about data from another field, and (b) you don't look too closely at the numbers.

    It's so tempting just to say "broadly consistent" and let the minds of the readers connect the dots: "Aha! It proves the theory! This can't be a mere coincidence! The dates are broadly consistent!" It's so tempting almost no one can resist using it from time to time.

    Let's look more closely at these "broadly consistent" dates. First of all, the Omo Kibish hominids simply fall outside the standard error of the mtDNA date. They're not "broadly consistent" at all --- if anything, they appear to be inconsistent, although they probably are close enough to be within a 95 percent confidence interval (if it were reported, which it isn't).

    That assumes that the important thing is for the dates to be the same. But if the human mtDNA type supposedly came from the population represented by these Ethiopian Homo sapiens fossils, then its variation must coalesce before these fossils. The same date is not evidence for consistency; a consistent date would be earlier. How much earlier depends on the demography, but 10 or 20 thousand years would seem like a bare minimum.

    And then there's the "hotspot" problem that is the subject of the Kivisild et al (2005) paper. The 160,000 year estimate assumes equality of rates among sites, but the data indicate that some sites mutate much more frequently than others, and repeatedly during human evolution. If these sites mutate more rapidly and have saturated on the human lineage compared to chimpanzees, then the 160,000 year date should be an overestimate because humans should have more variation than expected from the long-term evolutionary comparisons. The data do not indicate how extensive this overestimate may be, but it makes the coalescence less consistent with the dates of the fossils, not more.

    Now, can we say in this case that the dates are really not "broadly consistent"? No, indeed we can't. There are just too many sources of error in the genetic estimate to say whether it might be within the range of possible mtDNA ancestors of these Ethiopian fossils. The date could be as high as 210,000 - 220,000 years, if the mutation rate has been overestimated (e.g., if many rare sites that currently segregate are in fact selected). From that perspective, the dates are "broadly consistent" with every event in the Late Pleistocene.

    But that's far from a vote of confidence. It is not a significant coincidence; it is the overlap of uncertainty. And that's usually what "broadly consistent" means.

    References:

    Kivisild T et al. 2005. The role of selection in the evolution of human mitochondrial genomes. Genetics (online before print).

    Synopsis: 
    I introduce a new feature, looking for cases where two huge confidence intervals slightly overlap.
  • AL 438-1

    Fri, 2005-05-20 00:44 -- John Hawks

    Michelle Drapeau and colleagues (2005) report on the AL 438-1 specimen from Hadar. The specimen consists of "part of the mandible, a frontal bone fragment, a complete left ulna, two second metacarpals, one third metacarpal, plus parts of the clavicle, humerus, radius, and right ulna" (1). At 3 million years, the specimen is one of the youngest of the A. afarensis sample.

    The AL 438-1 individual was evidently relatively large compared to the rest of the Hadar sample. The ulna length is 278 mm, which is larger than the mean for any of the human samples examined by Aiello et al. (1999) in their comparative study of the OH 36 ulna. It is about average for a chimpanzee, although chimpanzees have relatively longer forelimbs than would have been true of A. afarensis, so again this is evidence of a relatively large body size.

    Drapeau et al. (2005) make a point of the proportion of the ulna and the mandible being similar to that found in AL 288-1 (Lucy), which they take as evidence that large teeth in this late specimen may be attributed to larger body size rather than greater megadonty:

    Both Australopithecus afarensis mandibles have a larger corpus (breadth and height at M1 relative to the ulnar size surrogate than those of African apes. Similarly, mandibular corpus shape (breadth/height x 100 at M1) is similar in the two fossils (A.L. 288-1, 57%; A.L. 438-1, 60%). This difference in mandibular size corresponds to what would be expected from two extant ape conspecifics with ulnae of such different sizes. Since there are no differences between the two Hadar skeletons in mandibular to ulnar proportions, there is no evidence for an increase in mandibular size relative to the rest of the skeleton between the points in time represented by these two individuals. We cautiously offer this as support for Lockwood et al.'s (2000) suspicion that the observed temporal trend toward larger mandible size reflects a body size increase late in the Hadar time span of A. afarensis (Drapeau et al. 2005:41-42).

    The paper has a substantial discussion of the morphology and comparative anatomy of the ulna. The bottom line of this analysis is that the ulna is similar to that of AL 288-1 in most respects, except for its larger size and somewhat greater curvature. It is, however, smaller and somewhat less curved than the later Omo L40-19, and substantially less curved than the OH 36 ulna. The authors write this about its similarities to other homionids:

    While phenetically A.L. 438-1 presents a mix of ape-like and human-like morphology, when considered in a phylogenetic context, the Australopithecus afarensis forelimb shares synapomorphies exclusively with humans among extant hominoids taxa. It resembles non-hominins only in plesiomorphic character states. In this context, it is apparent that A. afarensis forelimb anatomy reveals the results of selection for a more human-like humeroulnar joint, larger thumbs, and altered carpometacarpal joints that reflect an emphasis on manipulative aptitude at the expense of forelimb-dominated climbing ability (Drapeau et al. 2005:43).

    That is a relatively powerful statement of the adaptive qualities of the A. afarensis forelimb, which appers more or less necessary to explain the differences between early hominids and apes in this respect. If the early hominids were really climbing a substantial proportion of the time, then we might hypothesize that their forelimbs ought to look more like ape arms. But they don't; there are clear differences that make the early hominid arms look more similar to human arms. Thus, the authors turn to the hypothesis that the A. afarensis forelimb is additionally adapted to "an emphasis on manipulative aptitude."

    At the moment, this hypothesis remains to be strongly tested. Most of the human-like features of the A. afarensis arm are arguably the result of not being used in quadrupedal weight support. Thus, the fact that "the Australopithecus afarensis elbow joint appears to reflect habitual loading the elbow at or near 90 degrees, rather than optimization for loading in a more extended posture as in extant apes" (43-44), as well as the anatomy of the joint and the form of the carpometacarpal joints may all be explained by the fact that early hominids were not knuckle (or fist) walkers. The large thumbs are the strongest piece of evidence for any kind of manipulative behavior in A. afarensis.

    On the subject of retained similarities with apes, Drapeau et al. (2005:46) have this to say:

    The retention of African ape symplesiomorphies in A. afarensis may be attributed to either stabilizing selection fore a partially arboreal locomotor repertoire, or to lack of selection against these traits (see discussion in Stern, 2000; Ward, 2002). It is inherently difficult to test these alternative hypotheses. Thus, the significance of these retained traits for reconstructing the behavior of A. afarensis is difficult to determine with certainty in the context of demonstrable selection for a human-like elbow and hand joints. Australopithecus afarensis shares some apomorphies with humans that suggest emphasis on use of the forelimb in flexed postures, and improved grip capability relative to apes. The presence of these synapomorphies suggests similarities in forelimb function among hominins, likely reflecting selection for expanded manipulative capabilities and flexed forearm postures relative to that found in apes and a diminished capacity for ape-like arboreal behaviors. Only later did humans display evidence of further selection for manipulation coupled with reduced forelimb robusticity. We conclude that in Australopithecus afarensis, selection for natural manipulation outweighed selection for arboreal activities, but that selection for refined manipulative ability had not yet come into play in human evolution.

    A fine balance, if it is true, and fitting within the generally understood picture that, with regard to its arm and hand functions, A. afarensis was either Homo habilis nor a chimpanzee.

    References:

    Aiello LC, Wood B, Key C, and Lewis M. 1999. Morphological and taxonomic affinities of the Olduvai Ulna (OH 36). Am J Phys Anthropol 109:89-110.

    Drapeau MSM, Ward CV, Kimbel WH, Johanson DC, and Rak Y. 2005. Associated cranial and forelimb remains attributed to Australopithecus afarensis from Hadar, Ethiopia. J Hum Evol Advance before print.

    Lockwood CA, Kimbel WH and Johanson DC. 2000. Temporal trends and metric variation in the mandibles and dentition of Australopithecus afarensis. J Hum Evol 39:23-55.

  • Omo Kibish redating

    Sat, 2005-02-19 00:06 -- John Hawks

    The news stories (nature.com) are focusing on the idea that the "earliest" modern humans are now 35,000 years earlier than they had been. This is the amount by which the Omo Kibish specimens are now believed (McDougall et al. 2005) to be older than the previous contenders for "earliest modern humans," the 160,000 year-old Herto hominids (White et al. 2003). A bit of a discussion has been underway on the
    Palanth forum as to whether the 195,000 year estimate is really warranted, or whether there is more properly considered a broader range of error.

    It is important to have good stratigraphic placement and dates for the Omo Kibish specimens. Most of the Middle Pleistocene African fossils are associated only with poor dates or imperfectly known proveniences. Aside from the recent Herto sample, the dates for other important specimens are truly uncertain. So the knowledge that these hominids are broadly contemporaneous with Herto is immensely valuable.

    Why are the Omo Kibish hominids considered to be modern?

    This depends on one's definition of "modern humans." Many paleoanthropologists do not accept a distinction that sharply separates "modern" humans from "archaic" humans. For these scientists, the Omo Kibish specimens may simply be considered as representatives of their time and place, part of an evolutionary series leading to recent humans.

    There is no question that features of recent aspect occur within the late Middle Pleistocene African sample. Especially Omo 1 has similarities in overall cranial shape with more recent people. Such similarities also may characterize its facial form, although these details are subject to the reconstruction. Taking the Omo skulls as a sample, together with the Herto sample, the full range of anatomy spans from relatively modern to substantially archaic. Here are some pocket descriptions (leaving out the child's skull BOU-VP-16/5):

    • Omo 1: The occiput is rounded in profile, with only slight flattening of the parietals above lambda. In posterior view, the outline of the skull shows a maximum breadth relatively high on the parietal bones, narrowing significantly lower on the temporals toward the cranial base. The supraorbital torus is not greatly thickened even at the midline, and it thins toward the edges in a form that is continuous with the frontal squama. The interorbital space is relatively narrow. And as reconstructed, the skull appears to have both malar notches and a chin.
    • Omo 2: Here, the skull is markedly more angled in the occiput than in Omo 1. The maximum breadth of the skull is at the base, across the temporals, and the sides of the skull are more or less vertical. There is a well-marked angulation of the parietal bones, meeting in a rounded keel. There is a slight angular torus on the parietal, and a well-marked nuchal torus transversely extensive across the occiput. But the frontal bone is continuous into the supraorbital region with no sulcus separating them, and the supraorbital torus itself is relatively thin laterally--perhaps as much or more so than Omo 1.
    • BOU-VP-16/1 (Herto): The skull has a distinct angulation in the occiput, as great as Omo 2, with a very long nuchal plane. The skull appears to be slightly broader across the parietals than at the base, but the sides are essentially vertical: there is no distinct parietal boss. The nuchal torus is marked across the occiput, with a distinct downward-projecting inion. The browridge is moderately thick centrally, with a strong superciliary portion, and a clear sulcus dividing it from the curving frontal profile. There is a clear division between this superciliary arch and the lateral torus, which at its lateralmost extent is in the same range of thickness as the Omo 2 lateral torus. The zygomatic bone is very large, with a massive forward-facing cheek, hollowed into a canine fossa medially and malar notch inferiorly.

    Several commentators have raised the issue of whether this sample contains multiple species (one going so far as to posit that the "species" immediately ancestral to our own might be preserved alongside the "modern humans" in the personage of Omo 2). A lateral comparison of the three skulls (where their comparable parts are most visible) shows that the differences are not that extensive. The Herto skull and Omo 2 are very similar in profile, with BOU-VP-16/1 being slightly higher in the forehead. Omo 1 contrasts with these in its rounded occiput, but the frontal profile of all three specimens are similar, as are their lateral torus thicknesses. Omo 1 and 2 diverge greatly in the position of their greatest cranial breadth and shape of their cranial walls; BOU-VP-16/1 is intermediate between them. All three are robust, with Omo 1 the least robust of the three. Presumably, all three are males. Their variation is extensive, but not surprising for three crania in a single region of the world.

    Are they modern humans? As White and colleagues (2003) show, the Herto skull is outside the range of all recent humans in several cranial measurements. This is no doubt true for Omo 2 as well (although possibly not for Omo 1). But these are not recent, they are ancient. As a sample, they are certainly significantly different from any living sample. They are also certainly significantly different from Neandertals, and from earlier Africans.

    So do we define "modern" humans in contrast with some earlier group? Or do we define them based on the variability within living people?

    The answer here really is in the word "definition." If modern humans were really an evolutionary individual--a "thing" that could be discovered--then we shouldn't have to define them. We should be able to discover the boundaries of the group by examining discontinuities among fossil specimens. The fact that we have to find a definition (and that we have such trouble doing so) is in my mind sufficient to suggest that "modern" humans are not an evolutionary individual.

    References:

    McDougall I, Brown FH, Fleagle JG. 2005. Stratigraphic placement and age of modern humans from Kibish, Ethiopia. Nature 433:733Ð736.
    Nature

    White TD, Asfaw B, DeGusta D, Gilbert H, Richards GD, Suwa G, Howell FC. 2003. Pleistocene Homo sapiens from Middle Awash, Ethiopia. Nature 425:742Ð747.

  • Brain expansion in A. boisei

    Wed, 2005-02-16 22:25 -- John Hawks

    Elton and colleagues (2001) examined the record of brain size in early Homo with the following question in mind: we know that brain size increased in this lineage, but was that increase unusual compared to other lineages of primates at the same time? To answer this, they examined the brain sizes in fossil A. boisei and Theropithecus (the genus that includes living gelada baboons). Answering this question would determine whether the brain size of early Homo increased for reasons unique to this genus, or whether instead it was part of a broader trend that might be attributed to climatic changes or other ecological factors.

    The results of the study showed that fossil Theropithecus showed no particular trends in brain size over time. But A. boisei did show a significantly positive trend toward brain growth over time. This trend exists whether the early KNM-WT 17000 specimen is included in the sample or not, which is important because this skull is both small and early, and by itself might create a trend in a sample that was otherwise static over time. Without that skull, the trend is still there, driven mainly by the late large skull from Konso KGA 10-525, and the early small juvenile skull Omo L338y-6. Although this latter skull is juvenile, they use an estimated adult size that is about 4 percent larger than the actual endocast.

    The study compared these two cases with the evidence for brain size in early Homo. Looking only at Homo habilis, there is no apparent trend toward increasing brain size. This is partly because the largest specimen, KNM-ER 1470, is early and partly because of the great variation within the sample. The overall sample including H. habilis and early humans does show a significant trend over time, but this trend appears mainly to result from the presence of two distinct (and mostly discontiguous) species, one of which survives much later in time and therefore greatly influences the appearance of a trend. Considering early humans alone, there is really no trend evident before 1.5 million years ago, and only a slight increase up to the sample around a million years ago (Lee and Wolpoff 2002).

    Some issues:

    The study focused on change within each fossil species. But there is no comparison to the magnitude of changes that occurred between hominid taxa. This is problematic because most of the brain evolution in early Homo likely characterized the initial origin of the lineage from an ancestral australopithecine. It is no great surprise that H. habilis does not change markedly over time, but what is surprising is the substantial jump in size from earlier australopithecines like A. afarensis or A. africanus and later Homo. The same could be observed of the change between habilines and early humans. The authors actually run a test to see if the entire early Homo sample shows a trend over time (and it does), but it is clear from the data that the major difference is the shift in size from habilines to early humans, with each of these groups showing relatively little change over time.

    The trend in A. boisei depends entirely on the earliest and latest fossils. The small size of the early Omo L338y-6 specimen is unsurprising compared to the even smaller KNM-WT 17000, so the idea that the A. boisei lineage should have changed over time is possibly expected. But Omo L338y-6 is not the smallest member of the later sample (KNM-ER 407 is smaller), so it does make a difference whether KNM-WT 17000 is excluded or not. Especially considering this is a robust probable male skull, its very small endocranial volume makes a large contrast with later A. boisei, a difference extended by many other anatomical details.

    What about the late end of the sample? Here, the endocranial volume of KGA 10-525 appears very large, and is at the high end of the A. boisei range. But compared to earlier hominids, the volume is not surprisingly large. For example, the endocranial volume of AL 444-2 (A. afarensis) is estimated at around 550 mL (Holloway and Yuan 2004), and the volume of STW 505 (A. africanus) is certainly larger, perhaps over 600 mL (Hawks and Wolpoff 1999; Conroy et al. 1999). Although the body size of KGA 10-525 is not known, its molars are near the top end of the A. boisei sample, exceeded only by OH 5. This might suggest that the body size of the specimen was among the largest in the sample, and at the least we can guess that the individual was larger than the average for males.

    So to address whether KGA 10-525 was surprisingly large, we have to look beyond its date and ask what the expected range of brain sizes within A. boisei would have been. Including KNM-WT 17000 at the small end, and KGA 10-525 at the large end, the standard deviation of the entire A. boisei sensu lato sample in endocranial volume is 39.3 mL. With an average volume of 480 mL, this yields a CV (coefficient of variation) of 8.2 percent.

    By contrast, the H. habilis sensu lato sample, including KNM-ER 1470, has a standard deviation of 79.6 mL on an average of 634 mL, yielding a CV of 12.6 percent. So the A. boisei sample is a third less variable than the H. habilis sample.

    Holloway (1980) gives CV values for recent humans, from the Danish data of Pakkenberg and Voight (1964), broken down by sex. The within-sex CV's for males and females were 8.2 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively. So the variation within the extant sample of A. boisei, including KNM-WT 17000, is about the same as within one sex in living humans. This is despite the fact that the A. boisei sample spans a million years of time and appears to have been substantially greater in body size dimorphism (as indicated by cranial robusticity and tooth sizes) compared to humans.

    Tobias (1971) pools data from several earlier studies of endocranial volumes in hominoids, pooling sexes together. In his summary, the smallest degree of variation is within white-handed gibbons (Hylobates lar), where the CV of endocranial volume is 7.6 percent. Other hominoids are higher: chimpanzees at 9.7 percent, siamangs at 10.7 percent, orangutans at 10.9 percent, and a male-biased sample of gorillas at 13.1 percent. Except for the small and monomorphic gibbons, all these are higher than the estimate for A. boisei.

    So the problem is not that KGA 10-525 is surprisingly large. Instead, the problem is that variation in A. boisei has likely been substantially undersampled. There should be many larger and smaller crania than have yet been found in the sample.

    This is a problem for testing whether there is a significant trend within the A. boisei sample. In a sample with relatively low variation, the observation of a single large specimen at the recent end of the sample may be statistically surprising--the rarity of the large size is combined with the rarity of the recent date.

    In a study of fossils, we cannot really know what the underlying variability of the extinct species was. For this reason, we are left with tests that use only the observed sample variability. The best of these are randomization tests, which randomize one or more elements of the sample to determine the likelihood that the sample would have the observed characteristics based on the data at hand. But randomization tests assume that the data themselves are sufficient to represent the variation in the underlying population. If there is good reason to think that the data are not representative, then the randomization tests may mislead about the chance that the data would be ordered in the observed way at random.

    What if instead of randomly ordering the data to test its significance, instead we modeled the characteristics of the underlying population. For example, we could assume that the population had been a single species with a standard deviation similar to that observed in some living or fossil species--perhaps the observed standard deviation for earlier hominids, or for recent humans. The null hypothesis would be that this population was static in mean endocranial volume. With the computer's help, we can draw random variates from a normal distribution with the assumed standard deviation, assigning them randomly to the times observed for the real fossil sample. Then, we can perform whatever statistic we prefer upon the simulated sample, repeating the process some arbitrarily large number of times. The number of times that meet or exceed the trend observed in the fossil sample provide a p value for the null hypothesis.

    What would the result of such a test be for the A. boisei sample? Good question. I'll tell you when I find out.

    Why is this important?

    The question is really whether the brain size increase in Homo was unique among the early hominids, or whether it may have been replicated in other species. In particular, if the brain size increase also happened in A. boisei in parallel with early Homo, that would be surprising. After all, A. boisei likely had a very different paleoecology than any member of Homo, one that was almost certainly less dependent on technology, less reliant on high-energy foods such as meat, and presenting less of a necessity for group coordination of activities. If brain size increase could occur in a significant way in A. boisei, it really raises questions about the pattern of selection on brain size in hominids.

    What could explain an increase in A. boisei? One hypothesis would be energetics. The brain is a great energetic drain, because nervous tissue is very costly. For this reason, there is normally fairly strong selection in favor of smaller brains--because they are more energetically efficient. This selection for smaller brains is opposed by selection for brain functions of one kind or another, because a brain that is too small risks losing some function important for survival or reproduction.

    A. boisei clearly differed from earlier hominids in its dietary adaptation, and diet determines the overall energy budget available for an organism. Suppose that the robust masticatory adaptation of A. boisei allowed the species to have a more dependable source of foods during periods of scarcity--because the range of fallback foods was extended into foods unavailable to other hominids, for example. If this were the case, then A. boisei may have had significantly less resource stress during periods of resource scarcity for other hominids, and may therefore have had less trouble meeting their energetic demands. This would mean that the selection against larger brains on the basis of their energetic disadvantages might well be weaker in a robust australopithecine. With other sources of selection on brain function the same--or even possibly increased due to a small reliance on rudimentary toolmaking or other mental adaptations--the brain would increase in size.

    Some have used the apparent increase in brain size in A. boisei as an argument to address the importance of brain size expansion in later Homo. This is a point worth addressing, because it is a potentially misleading comparison. One way that it misleads is in the magnitude of change necessary to explain the apparent trends. In A. boisei, a straight regression through the earliest and latest observations indicates an increase in brain size of roughly 70 mL per million years. Of course, this regression like all others is most influenced by the smallest and largest values on the independent axis. Considering the probability that KGA 10-525 was actually larger than its instantaneous average, and that Omo L338y-6 was actually small, the actual amount of change in the species over time was likely much less than 70 mL per million years. A consideration of the data points excluding these extreme values yields a nonsignificant increase of only 21.5 mL per million years.

    In contrast, the magnitude of the increase in endocranial volume in Middle Pleistocene humans is much larger. Over the past million years, humans have increased from an average of around 900 mL to the present average of around 1350 mL, for a rate of 450 mL per million years. This is at least fivefold and more probably twentifold higher than the rate in A. boisei, and does not consider the observation that the change was concentrated in the more recent Middle and Late Pleistocene. Moreover, this rate is indeed a difference between early and late average values rather than a regression including early and late extreme values. One might object that we should consider the rate of change relative to the current absolute size rather than the absolute change. From the perspective of selection and the function of brain tissue, this question is not easy to answer: it could go either way. But a strict consideration of relative brain increase as opposed to absolute brain increase still shows that recent humans increased at a rate probably seven to tenfold higher than in A. boisei. And the increase within the past 250,000 years--from approximately 1100 to 1350 mL--would indicate a much higher rate of change, at 1000 mL per million years.

    So the observation of a slight trend toward higher brain size in A. boisei would not diminish the impressive degree of change in recent human evolution. Nor does it really lend to the idea that brain increases were widespread among fossil hominids and therefore unsurprising. In all likelihood there were other surprising changes, such as the increase from Australopithecus to Homo, and the increase from H. habilis to early humans. Each of these changes deserves a unique explanation, since the brain is not a character likely to increase in size at random or under the influence of genetic drift. And since the most recent increase in Pleistocene hominids occurred in every inhabited region of the world, it would require either gene flow between regions or several unique cases of simulaneous parallel evolution to explain.

    Bottom line: is there anything to explain here in A. boisei? I don't really think so. The apparent trend is too likely to be generated by the outlying observations. Even if a trend existed in the species over time, it appears to have been pretty low in magnitude. This remains a case where the recovery of a single specimen with the right measurements and date would completely eliminate any statistically significant result.

    References:

    Conroy GC, Weber GW, Seidler H, Tobias PV. 1999. Endocranial capacity of early hominids. Science 283:9.

    Elton S, Bishop LC, Wood B. 2001. Comparative context of Plio-Pleistocene hominin brain evolution. J Hum Evol 41:1--27.

    Hawks J, Wolpoff MH. 1999. Endocranial capacity of early hominids. Science 283:9b.

    Holloway RL. 1980. Within-species brain-body weight variability: A reexamination of the Danish data and other primate species. Am J Phys Anthropol 53:109--121.

    Holloway RL, Yuan MS. 2004. Endocranial morphology of A. L. 444-2. In: Kimbel WH, Rak Y, Johanson DC, editors, The skull of Australopithecus afarensis. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. p 123--135.

    Lee SH, Wolpoff MH. 2003. The pattern of evolution in Pleistocene human brain size. Paleobiology 29:186--196.

    Pakkenberg H, Voigt J. 1964. Brain weight of the Danes: forensic material. Acta Anatomica 56:297--307.

    Tobias PV. 1971. The brain in hominid evolution. Columbia: New York.

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Neandertals

For years, I've worked on their bones. Now I'm working on their genes. Read more about the science studying these ancient people.

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Malapa

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